On July 28, the number of COVID-19 cases in Kerala crossed 20,000 mark, touching 20,894. It had taken Kerala 180 days, from January 30 when the first COVID case in both Kerala and the country was reported, to reach the figure.
But it took just 22 days, at the rate of 1333.5 cases a day, to notch up the remaining nearly 30,000 cases (29,337) and touch the alarming figure of 50,231 on August 19. In the last fortnight, since August 6, Kerala had reported more cases (21,080) than Gujarat (15,098) and Delhi (15,585), two states that have generally fared far worse than Kerala in COVID control.
Still, Kerala stands only 14th in the country in terms of COVID numbers. Eight states have over one lakh cases; Maharashtra tops the list with 6.15 lakh cases.
All of Kerala's neighbours, except Telangana, have more than two lakh cases; Tamil Nadu (3.50 lakh), Andhra Pradesh (3.06 lakh) and Karnataka (2.40 lakh). Telangana has 95,700.
Nonetheless, while numbers are showing an upswing in Kerala, states like Delhi and Gujarat seem to have crossed the peak and are on the way down, not just flattening the curve but creating a roof-shaped one. For instance Delhi, which had nearly 4,000 cases in the second half of June, had only 1,398 new cases on August 19. Gujarat, which has over 80,000 cases, had only 1,140 new cases on August 19.
In fact, Delhi alone is showing a marked decline. States like Gujarat, Bihar, Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh, all of them with a considerably higher number of cases than Kerala, are showing signs of steadying.
Controlled death rate
Kerala also perhaps has the lowest fatality rate. By August 19, Kerala has officially confirmed 182 COVID deaths, a fatality of 0.36 per cent. This is far lower than the national death rate of 1.9 per cent. Fatality rate in Maharashtra is 3.36 per cent, in Tamil Nadu it is 1.72 per cent, in Andhra Pradesh it is 0.92 per cent, in Karnataka it is 1.74 per cent, in Delhi it is 2.73 per cent, in Telangana it is 0.95 per cent.
Even states with lesser COVID numbers like Madhya Pradesh and Haryana have a higher death rate. Haryana has 48,936 confirmed cases but its fatality rate is 1.14 per cent. Madhya Pradesh has 47,375 cases but has a fatality rate of 2.4 per cent.
Even Chhattisgarh, which has fared well with only 16,833 confirmed cases, has a higher fatality rate (0.93 per cent) than Kerala.
The low death rate is considered a major achievement as Kerala has two demographic peculiarities that could have potentially pushed up the death rate considerably. One, the percentage of elderly in Kerala is the highest in the country. Two, it also has the highest number of people with underlying complications that are quickly accentuated by the virus like diabetes, cancer, and cardiac, liver and kidney troubles.
Besides a highly responsive health system, quick hospitalisation of patients is the other factor that kept the fatality rate low in Kerala. Care is being taken to hospitalise the infected, especially the vulnerable like the elderly and others with comorbidities, within two days of the onset of symptoms, effectively halting the disease's progression.
Testing and growing case load
The increase in the number of cases in Kerala can also be attributed to aggressive testing. On August 19, 36,291 samples were processed, the highest ever, leading to the detection of the highest ever daily ally of 2,333.
Since August 5, over 25,000 tests were done in Kerala almost on all days. On five days, including August 19, the test number was over 30,000.
The daily figure crossed 100 when nearly 2,000 tests were done. It passed 500 when over 8,500 tests were done daily. The number crossed 1,000 when over 20,000 tests were done, and the daily tally went past 1,500 when over 30,000 tests were conducted.
Now, it has breached the 2,000 mark when over 35,000 tests were done. At this rate, when 50,000-odd tests are done daily by the start of September, the number of fresh cases daily is expected to hover around the 3,500-4,000 range.
Scaling up the number of tests seems an effective weapon against COVID. Delhi, which conducts the highest tests per million (58,963), has shown a declining trend. Maharashtra has far less tests per million (21,732) and cases continue to spiral; it had 13,165 cases on August 19.
Kerala stands in between with tests per million pegged at 27,434.
Positivity rate on the rise
However, Kerala has one of the lowest test positivity rate in the country. Only 3.93 people out of 100 test positive in Kerala. For India as a whole, it is 8.72 per cent. It is 19 for Telangana, 18.2 for Maharashtra and 16.1 for Delhi.
Clearly Kerala is relatively better off but its positivity rate has been gradually rising. Till June 30, when less than 5,000 tests were done, not even two out of 100 turned positive. When 10,000 tests were done, the rate inched up to 2.5 per 100 people tested. Now, it is almost four.
