Thiruvananthapuram: The current wave of COVID-19 is likely to peak in Kerala from May 11 before showing a downward trend from the middle of the month, according to government estimates.
However, strict implementation of restrictions and COVID-19 appropriate behaviour would be necessary to decrease the caseload after May 15.
The Disaster Management Authority estimated that the State would have about four lakh COVID-19 patients during the peak between May 11 and 15. The caseload might remain high in Thiruvananthapuram, Ernakulam, Malappuram and Kozhikode districts till May end.
A preliminary report prepared on April 19 estimated that 2.18 lakh people would be under treatment for COVID-19 in the second week of May. The report was amended after receiving the results of the mass testing drive.
The reproduction rate
The COVID-19 reproduction rate has been pegged at 2.5. Reproduction rate or ‘R naught’ is a mathematical term indicating how contagious and infectious a disease is. Also referred to as reproduction number, it reveals the average number of people (free of the infection, and not inoculated), who would contract the disease from another single person with that disease.
The reproduction rate has been high in Alappuzha, Thiruvananthapuram, Pathanamthitta, Kottayam, Idukki, Thrissur, Palakkad, Malappuram, and Kozhikode districts, where it was relatively low in Wayanad, Kannur and Kasaragod.
The government has been hoping that the weekend mini-lockdown would check the rate of the spread, which showed a week-on-week increase of 150 per cent.
Fresh daily caseload may touch 38,657
New Delhi: Fresh COVID-19 cases in Kerala could cross 30,000 a day to record the highest single-day spike of 38,657, the NITI Ayog said in its report.
The premier policy think-tank agency of the Central government has estimated that Kerala might face shortages of 5,574 intensive care unit (ICU) beds with oxygen supply, and 918 ICU beds during the peak. The State might also be short of 603 ventilators.
Kerala reports 28,469 new cases on Sunday
Thiruvananthapuram: Kerala continued to report high numbers of new COVID-19 cases, with Sunday recording the highest single-day spike, so far, with 28,469 people testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 out of the 1,26,773 samples tested.
As many as 2.18 people are under treatment in the State, which also reported a high test positivity rate of 22.46 per cent. With 30 more deaths reported on Sunday, the toll has risen to 5,110.
Ernakulam has the highest number of new cases, 4,468. The fresh cases in other districts are: Kozhikode: 3,998; Malappuram: 3,123, Thrissur: 2,871; Kottayam: 2,666; Thiruvananthapuram: 2020; Kannur: 1,843; Palakkad: 1,820; Alappuzha: 1,302; Kollam: 1209; Pathanamthitta: 871; Idukki: 848; Kasaragod: 771; and Wayanad: 659.
The presence of the virus was confirmed in 338 people who had arrived in the State from outside. As many as 45 healthcare workers also tested positive. The number of recovered patients was pegged at 8,122 on Sunday.
Mortality rate lesser than first wave
The mortality rate during the second wave has been half of the first. Between April 10 and 23, 1.5 lakh people were tested positive for the virus, and the State reported a mortality rate of 0.19 per cent with 290 deaths.
During the first wave, 12.95 lakh people had contracted the virus and 5,000 patients died. The mortality rate then was 0.39 per cent.
