CPI feels secure in Nattika despite Mukundhan effect

Kochi: What was once considered one of the safest seats for the Left in Kerala has now transformed into one of the state’s most volatile political theatres. The otherwise quiet coastal stretch of Nattika in Thrissur has turned into a high-voltage battleground following the dramatic expulsion of sitting MLA CC Mukundhan from the Communist Party of India (CPI).

In a move that sent shockwaves in the party, Mukundhan didn’t just walk out; he burned bridges, alleging that the party had reduced the constituency to a “payment seat” to accommodate former MLA Geetha Gopi. Now contesting as the BJP’s surprise candidate, he is leading an aggressive campaign against his former comrades, turning it into a sharp contest between party loyalty and personal influence.

Yet, despite the unprecedented political churn, early ground-level trends suggest that the Left Democratic Front’s (LDF) Geetha Gopi remains firmly in the lead in this traditional stronghold, with the UDF’s Sunil Laloor and the NDA’s Mukundhan trailing behind in what has now evolved into a three-cornered contest.

Why the red fortress still stands
Nattika has long been a CPI bastion, and the party’s advantage is rooted not just in history but in a deeply entrenched organisational network. That strength was evident in the 2025 local body polls, where the LDF secured a clear lead across key panchayats such as Valapad, Thalikulam, Chazhur, Thanniam and Anthikad. This grassroots dominance continues to act as a cushion for Geetha Gopi.

Electoral history further reinforces the Left’s position. In 2021, Mukundhan, then a CPI candidate, won the seat with a massive margin of 28,431 votes, securing nearly 47.5% of the vote share. This followed a consistent pattern of CPI dominance, with Geetha Gopi winning in 2016 by 26,589 votes and in 2011 by 16,054 votes.

For the LDF, the strategy is clear: to demonstrate that the party’s symbol and machinery outweigh the influence of any individual leader. Party cadres have already rallied around this narrative, framing Mukundhan’s defection as opportunistic and using it to consolidate their core voter base.

The ‘Mukundhan factor’ reshapes the contest
Mukundhan’s entry into the BJP camp has significantly altered the electoral arithmetic in Nattika. A familiar face in the coastal belt, he is banking on personal goodwill and a carefully crafted “martyr” narrative, claiming he was sidelined for financial considerations, to draw sympathy from neutral voters and even sections of traditional Left supporters.

The BJP had secured around 22% of the vote in 2021, but the party believes Mukundhan could push that figure closer to 30%. Even so, the consensus on the ground is that while he may cut into the LDF’s formidable majority, converting that into a victory remains a steep challenge.

The CPI’s disciplined cadre base, often driven by a “party-over-personality” approach, is expected to act as a firewall against large-scale vote shifts. This makes Mukundhan’s task less about outright victory and more about disrupting the Left’s dominance.

UDF eyes an opening
Amid this high-stakes battle, the United Democratic Front (UDF) is positioning itself as a potential beneficiary of a divided vote base. Its candidate, Adv. Sunil Laloor, is banking on the possibility that a split in traditional LDF vote banks, particularly among Ezhava and Scheduled Caste voters, could tilt the balance.

The UDF’s hopes are not without precedent. Veteran Congress leader TN Prathapan had managed to break the Left’s hold on Nattika twice, winning in 2001 with a margin of 11,747 votes and again in 2006 by 9,686 votes. Those victories remain a reminder that the constituency, while being a Left stronghold, is not invincible.

Laloor’s campaign is focused on local issues, particularly allegations of developmental stagnation in coastal areas and unmet promises regarding sea wall construction. By foregrounding these concerns, the UDF hopes to recreate a “perfect storm” similar to the one that enabled Prathapan’s victories.

As the campaign enters its final stretch, Nattika is shaping up as a contest defined by margins rather than outright swings. The LDF continues to rely on its robust grassroots machinery, recent local body victories, and a decade-long record of commanding wins.

At the same time, the “Mukundhan factor” has injected a level of unpredictability rarely seen in this constituency. His presence has ensured that the BJP is no longer a marginal player, while also complicating the electoral equations for both fronts.

For the UDF, the unfolding contest offers a narrow but real window of opportunity, one that hinges entirely on the scale of the split within the Left’s traditional support base.

As things stand in late March, the advantage remains with the LDF and Geetha Gopi. But with a former MLA now leading the charge against his own party and a three-pronged fight in play, Nattika is facing one of its toughest and most unpredictable electoral tests in recent memory.