On August 2, at the press conference P S Sreedahran Pillai held minutes before he was to be officially crowned the state BJP chief, he was rudely dismissive of the Congress. “The Congressmen are a disgruntled lot, resignations have become a daily routine. I am sure many of them will join the BJP,” he said.
In his triumphant mood, Pillai had also declared an 'open door' policy. “Our door is open to everyone. This was why Vajpayee had once aligned with Sheikh Abdullah's party in Kashmir and Akali Dal in Punjab,” he said. This was widely considered the BJP's mating call to Kerala Congress (Mani).
Counter punch
Now, after the results of the assembly elections to five states are almost out, Pillai has his chin at the recoil end of the shot he had fired. Never has the Congress looked stronger in the past five years. Fence-sitters in the state unit of the Congress, whom Pillai was banking on to either switch to the BJP or form splinter groups, will now know which side to roll over and fall. And it is doubtful whether potential partners like KC(M) will find the BJP's inviting birdsong alluring.
“Without a coalition of smaller parties, no major party can hope to make it big in Kerala,” said political scientist J Prabhash. The BJP's vote share during the last assembly elections was just over 10 per cent, the highest they had ever managed in the state. Both the CPM and the Congress alone had cornered over 20 per cent of the vote share each, and to this was piled up the substantial vote shares of their coalition partners. The LDF vote share in 2016 was 43.48 per cent, and the UDF's, 38.81. The BJP-led NDA alliance, even with a powerful booster called Modi strapped around it, could secure just 15.4 per cent of the votes.
Dysfunctional 'parivar'
“The resurgence of the Congress, and the clear waning of the Modi appeal, will make things even more difficult for the BJP in the state,” Prabhash said. Even the thin NDA alliance stitched up during the 2016 assembly polls now looks tattered. Tribal leader C K Janu's Adivasi Gothra Mahasabha has already left the alliance, and returned to the LDF fold.
Bharatiya Dharma Jana Sena, the BJP's biggest alliance partner, has a love-hate relationship with the saffron party. It did not come to Sreedharan Pillai's help during the Chengannur by-election. However, the party's concerns were later assuaged to an extent and brought back. During the Sabarimala agitation, the BDJS stood firmly with the BJP. But the SNDP Yogam, the parent body of the BDJS, is seen on the other side with the LDF. Many say this political circus of having one's feet on two boats is tactical. Perhaps, the SNDP is waiting for the right moment to choose the right boat. The election results could be that moment. BDJS president Tushar Vellappally refused to comment on the election results.
Georgian game
P C George, who has an open truck with the BJP, has already shown signs of wavering. “I have never said that Janapaksham (George's party) will align with the BJP in the coming Lok Sabha polls. In fact, we have not had discussions with any party,” George told Onmanorama after the results were announced.
It was only recently that George had formally decided to cooperate with BJP's lone MLA O Rajagopal inside the Assembly. George said that this understanding would continue. “I don't consider the BJP to be an untouchable. No party, be it the CPM or Congress, can claim truthfully that they are not communal. So why are these people trying to make the BJP a political outcast,” George said.
Limits of faith
According to Prabhash, the Sangh Parivar will also have to rethink their Sabarimala strategy. “The hard Hindutva line they are adopting in the Sabarimala issue is clearly not working for them. The results of the local body by-elections prove this. It is also an open secret that the Sabarimala verdict has triggered a fresh bout of infighting in the BJP,” Prabhash said.
The poor response to the BJP's hartal in Thiruvananthapuram district on the Sabarimala issue, too, seemed to reflect the general mood that viewed the BJP with increasing suspicion.
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