According to prominent Virologist Dr Gagandeep Kang, COVID-19 will keep recurring in the future. She is part of the eminent panellists of doctors appointed by the Supreme court to monitor COVID-19. Having said that she also maintained in an exclusive interview to Malayala Manorama that such a destructive wave of covid is unlikely to occur again.
Will there be a Covid third wave?
The first wave or second wave as far as we have seen is because of the rising and uncontrollable surge in Covid cases in the country. There are many reasons for that. The many variants of this virus are a major cause of worry. Unless a stronger virus variant emerges, we are unlikely to witness a scary wave like this in the future.
Covid will be around as a seasonal virus-like Chikungunya, Dengue fever or Viral fever with varying intensity. We need to think about this virus’s seasonal occurrences. There is no clarity as to how long it will be around or how intense its repercussions will be when it hits.
Virus infections, especially those related to breathing usually surges during the winter season. Influenza is the best example. This is also possible in Covid’s case. There are other Coronaviruses that escalate according to the seasons. So why can’t SARS-CoV-2 2 which causes Covid emerge according to the seasons? The possibilities are high.
Does that mean there is no end to this Covid?
Considering it is a seasonal virus, it will either decrease or make sporadic appearances without causing major worry among the people. This can be achieved when people reach a certain level of immunity.
Isn’t a stronger variant still a threat?
Virus variants will always be there. Within days after a virus gets into the human body, it tends to go through various changes. Though there will be various virus variants that go through changes they usually tend to die without causing much harm to the human body. And one or two will outlast. It is this survival mechanism that helps the virus to spread easily. It is to this category that this new variant of concern belongs. They can survive and spread.
How much can the vaccine help?
These new variants apparently contain immune escape nature. And we need a much stronger immune booster to counter these variants. Thankfully, most of the available vaccines in India come with this immunity standard.
Though they might not be able to guarantee 90 per cent safety, they at least give 60 per cent higher immunity levels. That also means it’s better to get vaccinated and achieve 60 per cent immunity levels than expose ourselves to Covid without any immunity boosters.
One of the prime objectives of the vaccine is to decrease the intensity of the disease along with the fatality rate of Covid. According to the latest laboratory studies, this vaccine even has the capacity to prevent the spread of Covid. That’s a hopeful situation.
What are the other remedies?
That we are dealing with a dangerous virus is something all are aware of. Therefore the immunity measures against it should be doubly strong. Though there are various variants, if the gene sequencing suggests that it won’t pose much of a threat, we can continue with the current immunity methods. But if one or two variants are still creating havoc, it also means we need to up our current resistance procedures. For this, you need effective gene sequencing as well as a comparative study between the total cases and the different variants.
If another wave resurfaces there are concerns that children will be the worst affected?
I don’t think so. According to the Sero survey results conducted during the first and second waves, it has been proved that children will also be affected by Covid. But there are not many cases. Imagine out of a population of 50 lakhs, 10,000 Covid affected are adults and 500 are children. By the time, the next wave hits around 80 per cent of the adults will be vaccinated. Though there won’t be a 100 per cent success rate, the spread will be considerably reduced and only 4,000 adults will likely be affected by Covid.
Even then there are chances of 500 more children being affected by Covid as they are not vaccinated. Compared to the first wave, it might look like more children are affected in the second wave. But that’s not true according to the proportional calculations.
About the fungus infection
India is always the land of over medication. That’s evident in the use of antibiotics and steroids. Indiscreet use of medicines and antibiotics are the main villains of this black fungus. That along with a slip in diabetic control.
Black fungus is there throughout the world. But nowhere are we hearing such a surge in black fungus cases. We should blame ourselves for these problems. Even other kinds of fungus infections (white and yellow) should be blamed on the overuse of steroids.
The government should listen to the experts. Take a scientific approach.
About the country’s vaccination drive?
Their decision to give priority to frontline workers and age groups along with the vaccination rules cannot be faulted. But lack of vaccines can be an issue. If you are not able to procure vaccines, you should inform the people. Why we are not able to procure the vaccines? Also, make them aware of the benefits of the 3-month gap between vaccines. This will all help in the vaccination process.
Lesson learned from the first wave.
Immunization based on scientific studies and theories is very crucial. This is sadly not happening in many places. Also, make sure to involve society in this. The second wave hasn’t affected the areas which have successfully flattened the curve and have worked on its health care facilities. Conditions to decide whether the curve has been flattened are especially important. This should be decided judiciously. Give a thought to the migrant workers. They were left in the lurch. That’s a dangerous facet in the Covid spread. Along with healthcare, we should also safeguard the welfare of our public.
Dr Gagandeep Kang is a microbiologist professor at Vellore Christian Medical College.
