Kerala's climate change panel initiates study on unusual weather events, moots intensive campaign

Kerala bore the brunt of the extreme weather impact in recent months due to climate change. While February saw record temperatures, March and April experienced unprecedented summer showers. Sinan Nizar, Scientist, KSCSTE - Institute for Climate Change Studies says research is underway on a paper on the recent weather events and how they are going to impact the weather pattern of the state in the coming days.

Switching to a green lifestyle at the grassroots level and shutting down of fossil fuel-based industries at the macro-economic level is the most imperative strategy to curb greenhouse gases that cause climate change, according to Sinan Nizar. While stressing such a sudden shift is near impossible, he presents a view on how such measures can be practical in the future, during a conversation with Onmanorama.

The action plan on climate change will require people to opt out of several convenient aspects like air conditioners, fossil fuel-based vehicles and so on. How can this change be brought about?
There are some practical issues. There can be a gap between the scientific community and the general public, who approach life on practical terms. So, on several occasions, it may so happen that measures are not as effective as planned. However, we can bring about significant changes at the government level if we choose to. For example, making the public transport system more convenient and luxurious at lower costs, as the climate or the weather of a place deems fit, can help people avoid private vehicles to the maximum. If that comes about as a collective action, it can help reduce pollution. In foreign nations, the public transportation system is used by most commuters, regardless of the people's living standards.

What can we do to inspire people to adopt such green practices voluntarily?
Currently, the school curriculum includes provisions to educate students about humanity's responsibility towards nature. Even small kids in schools know about climate change and why that occurs and most importantly, what their roles are, like how plastic should be discarded or burned, and so on. We didn't have a similar community till some years ago. When these kids grow up they will be well aware of activities that may cause pollution or hazardous emissions. Many of the policy aspects, which we now find practically impossible could be easy in the future. Especially in Kerala, unlike many other states, we have a more receptive community. I visit schools as part of ICCS' youth for climate change programme and conduct classes at government and private schools using instruments and climate models. I have found that they responded well and I feel that they can be moulded well for a nature-friendly future.

How do you compare the increase in global temperature with that of Kerala?
The highlight of the climate change is that it is regional. The impact is not uniform worldwide. But when it comes to Kerala, it is directly linked to global climate change. While the global average last year increased by 1.5 degrees Celsius, Kerala experienced a 1-degree Celsius rise. The change in global climate is in line with that of Kerala, and the trend predicted for the future in the state is also in sync.

How does a nation take measures to resist climate change in accordance with the international climate pact?
An action plan has already been drafted globally against climate change, and based on that there is a national action plan as well, which lists things to be done to subdue climate change. Again, there is an action plan on climate change for every state based on the diversity of the geographical, locational and other features of various regions. In Kerala, the state action plan was drafted under the Department of Environment and Climate Change. It's a comprehensive document, which carries out studies on the projected climate change foreseeing the livelihood, community, development and so on. It has outlined the strategy and mitigation plans the state has to adopt.

For example, the state government allocates incentives to panchayats, blocks, or wards that adopt schemes entrusted to them as per the state's action plan on climate change. With the rise in temperature, there is a possibility of a water crisis. So a state-specific action plan on climate change, especially for the water sector, has also been prepared at the national level. It is being created jointly by the Kerala State Council for Science, Technology & Environment, the National Institute of Hydrology and the Irrigation department of Kerala. The studies and meetings have already been completed, and the reports will be made public soon. Such activities are underway at the government level to mitigate the climate change.

Do you find anything unusual in recent summer showers, and what do they imply?
The even rains at this time of the year is expected. The intensity of these rains has not been assessed. So far, nothing abnormal about these rains has been identified. In fact, a recent study, which will be available in the public domain soon, has confirmed that the number of rainy days are reducing. This means there has been more dry as well as intense rainfall in recent years. Moreover, it is also observed that extreme rainfall events are becoming more spatially widespread, rather than in isolated cases.

What is the temperature forecast for 2025?
The trend that we have observed is the increasing temperatures as per different climate models used for the future. But that doesn't mean that the year 2025 will be experiencing a temperature level above that of 2024 or maybe even lower. But, in the long run, it will continue to increase with some cyclic variations depending on climatic phenomena like EL Nino or La Nina. Such variations are quite natural. But, the upward trend that is present there is brought about by anthropogenic impacts due to pollution, deforestation, mining, green house gas emissions, among others.