IMD forecasts warmer February, below-normal rainfall across India

New Delhi: India is likely to experience a warmer-than-usual February with rainfall remaining below normal, especially across the Himalayan region, where a drier winter pattern has been increasingly associated with climate change, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Saturday.

At a press briefing, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra stated that the country is expected to record below-normal rainfall during February, while both minimum and maximum temperatures are forecast to stay above average.

He warned that higher temperatures could hasten the growth cycle of rabi crops and shorten their maturity period, particularly in the northwestern and central parts of the country, reported PTI.

"Crops like wheat and barley may experience forced maturity, leading to sterile spikelets and chaffy grains, resulting in yield reduction," the IMD chief said.

According to Mohapatra, February rainfall over Northwest India — including East and West Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh — is expected to remain below normal.

He explained that the lack of western disturbances in December and much of January resulted in unusually dry winter conditions in the western Himalayan region, with snowfall occurring only after January 20.

"Over the period of time, rainfall over the western Himalayas has shown a decreasing trend, which has been attributed to climate change by studies carried out by the IMD and other institutes," he said.

However, Mohapatra noted that identifying a single climate-related factor responsible for the declining rainfall remains challenging.

"Attribution studies are very difficult not only in India, but also the world over," he said.

He further pointed out that two successive western disturbances recently brought rainfall to western regions of the country — areas lying west of 80 degrees east longitude — while eastern parts remained largely dry.

Additionally, a depression over the Bay of Bengal in January, which moved towards northeast Sri Lanka, contributed to dry conditions across much of eastern India, except the northeastern states.

Mohapatra said minimum temperatures in February are likely to stay above normal across most regions, with the exception of parts of southern peninsular India, where temperatures are expected to be closer to average.

Similarly, maximum temperatures are forecast to remain higher than normal in most areas, though some pockets of central and southern peninsular India may see near-normal daytime temperatures.