A lame duck US Presidency may be chaotic

If the founding fathers of the US Constitution had intended that the midterm polls should be a true review of the performance of the incumbent President after two years, a provision should have been made that any President who does not win a majority in the two houses should resign immediately. If that was the case, Presidents would be extra careful in the first two years and a situation like the present one would not have arisen. Today the US is facing a chaotic situation in which a person who has lost all legitimacy in his country and held responsible for a lawless world holds sway. If the present plight of the President and the country should be avoided, the US lawmakers should think of a suitable amendment to the US Constitution.

Jeffrey D Sachs, a Professor at Colombia, one of the ferocious critics of Donald Trump, made a scathing attack on Trump and came to the conclusion that “you don’t elect a person like this in a healthy political system… Get him out of there before he kills us all.” The words he used about his characteristics need not be repeated after that conclusion. No one has defended Trump against such criticism. In other words, it is not the US voters alone who have rejected him, but many around the world.

The question being asked is whether Trump will reform himself to allow the US to function in peace for the next two years. His responses after the results were announced do not give any such indication. He has declared that he will be a veto king and defy the houses in whichever way he can. He has not given any indication that he has any intention to stop the war against Iran or any other country. If there is a change of leadership in Israel, he is likely to be even more determined to turn Gaza into a tourist resort. Iran is reported to have submitted a plan on the nuclear issue. He was close to a solution many times and no proposal that enables Iran to have a nuclear deterrent will be acceptable to him It is very clear that Trump will not allow any kind of nuclear deterrent for Iran. If he is looking for a pledge not to manufacture nuclear weapons, there is plenty of it by way of the Iranian signature on the NPT, a fatwa that nuclear weapons are taboo and the agreement announced by Oman just before the war started. He has announced more than once that he has obliterated the nuclear facilities deep under the earth.

One major impact of the war on Iran was the bombing of the Gulf states by Iran and the current onslaught of the Houthis on Saudi Arabia. The situation in the Gulf has weakened the US position in the region because of the different pacts that are being signed to weaken the security arrangements built over the years by the US. There is no indication that Trump is working to reestablish the American defence arrangements.

The midterm polls have revealed beyond doubt that the Indian Americans have withdrawn the support to him for a variety of reasons. The main reason for this was the various measures that Trump has taken to restrict immigration of even the most talented Indians, who have been characterised as “indentured labour” reminiscent of the British Government in India, shipping away Indians to the colonies like South Africa and Fiji with the assurance of full citizenship without discrimination and they ended up in miserable labour camps. What Trump has done is to destroy the “American dream” of the Indian youth. Earlier, once someone secures admission in a US University, his future is secure during the various stages towards citizenship. The many Indians who hold important positions in the US industry have come through this route, but the new arrivals have no sense of security.

There has been a clear swing against Indian Americans since Trump became President. The clannish mentality of the American Indians has been an irritant even in the past. But today the social media is replete with unpalatable comments about the Indian Americans. All these have made many Indians who had shifted from the Democratic camp to the Republican during the last elections to return to the Democratic tent. This has also coincided with problems in India-US relations caused by the trade war, tariffs and war of words over Indian purchase of Russian oil. Unless the trade agreement is signed, wooing China and Pakistan to the detriment soon, the present impasse will only deepen, and Trump will be too busy cultivating China and using Pakistan. He seems to have made up his mind that a pliant Pakistan will be more useful than India. We cannot expect a change in Trump’s policy towards India in his post-midterm poll tenure as President.

In the meantime, the race towards a new world order after the end of the old one will proceed more cautiously in view of the churn within the US and the unpredictability and instability around the world. The results of the US midterm poll have only added new obstacles to the transformation of the world as it wrestles with a lame duck US President.