For the first time, the political theatre of Tamil Nadu is moving into elections without two key players – DMK patriarch M Karunanidhi and AIADMK leader J Jayalalithaa. The electoral activities of the respective parties – right from seat-sharing to campaigning to candidate selection – had been, for years, meticulously guided by Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa. Election observers feel their absence is often felt in the closed rooms where seat-sharing talks take place. The grapevine is that the ‘personality void’ is prompting some traditional allies to think of moving out to other camps.
Early-bird advantage
The AIADMK seems to have the early bird advantage with the party forging an alliance with the BJP. The other parties in the alliance are: Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), which may get seven seats; Puthiya Tamizhagam and Puthiya Neethi Katchi (one seat each likely).
Regional call
Big-B BJP’s national-level arm-twisting tactics had little or no effect in the Dravidian heartland as the party had to contend with just five seats. Party insiders privy to the parleys said it had taken upon itself the task of assigning seats to smaller parties. Then, the talks were reaching nowhere and the BJP leaders approached the AIADMK to sort it out. With the ball in its court, the AIADMK allotted five to the BJP.
Notably, the AIADMK alliance has no Muslim or minority representation. This has caused quite a consternation among the ranks. AIADMK MP A Anwhar Raajha had openly stated after the alliance announcement that ‘it will not be a minority welfare-oriented set up.’ Anwhar Raajha, notably, is AIADMK’s first candidate to secure 4.05 lakh votes.
The AIADMK’s win of all but two seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections was attributed to two things: its consolidation of the OBC, Dalit and tribal votes and the hair-splitting community-wise allocation of seats.
The party gained significantly in the Kallar-dominated Kaveri delta region, the Thevar-dominated south and the Gounder-dominated Kongu region.
DMK alliance
The DMK has roped in the Congress with an offer of nine seats in Tamil Nadu and one in Puducherry. The others in the alliance are the Viduthalai Chiruthaikal Katchi (VCK), a Dalit party led by Thol Thirumavalavan; the CPI and the CPM; the Indian Union Muslim League; the Manithaneya Makkal Katchi; and the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK), led by Vaiko.
Alliance patterns
The key partners could give an indication of the types of alliances forged by the two main parties. The AIADMK's bid to cash in on the BJP wave and its aspersions to stay close to a power centre are evident in its tie-up. Political observers say the traditional two-leaf voters may not vote for BJP, especially in the absence of Jaya.
Vote share
In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP secured a five per cent vote share, emerging third after the AIADMK (44%) and DMK (23%). The party could get only one seat (Pon Radhakrishnan won from Kanyakumari).
Non-linear numbers
The party leaders are not counting on the previous LS poll numbers as they know the figures never play out in a linear manner. In the 2011 TN Assembly elections, the BJP’s vote share was just 2.22 per cent. It increased by 0.6 percentage points to touch 2.8 per cent in the 2016 Assembly polls. That the AIADMK cared little of the miniscule vote-share while forging the current alliance is a curious fact. This is especially so because the opposition DMK's main alliance partner, the Congress, could single-handedly manage a vote share of 6.4 per cent in the 2016 Assembly polls.
More trouble for AIADMK
The DMK's quiet but significant Left-of-Centre stance, projected from the times of Karunanidhi, has kept it close to the Muslim population. The Manithaneya Makkal Katchi (MMK) and the IUML could possibly garner as much votes as the BJP could with their 0.5 and 0.7 per cent vote share respectively in the 2016 Assembly elections.
New entrants
The entry of the Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM), led by actor Kamal Haasan, is being touted as a game-changer. The party makes no tall claims. The mandate given to every candidate is to get the deposit back and to be an ‘influencer’ in the constituency. The party has an appeal among the young and educated, with Kamal Hasan making nuanced and studied statements. He took the fight straight to DMK bastion and Karunanidhi’s constituency Tiruvarur on MNM’s first anniversary. He said his intention was to ‘shift the people’s mindsets out of dynasty politics.’ Many observers say the urban votes could swing in favour of MNM and create an AAP-like vote bank for the party. Notably, Kamal has also said that youngsters would get preference in candidate selection.
A strain of virulence
It is to be seen as to how the vitriolic Vijayakanth takes his party, the DMDK, to. Both the AIADMK and the DMK are reluctant to take in the virulent actor.
DMK scion knows the script is not conclusive with the Kalaingar absent this time. However, he can be happy that the party is pitted against an all-time weak enemy, the AIADMK without its Amma.
