Pathanamthitta: Will Prime Minister Narendra Modi contest general election from Pathanamthitta? The challenge was posed by CPM Kerala secretary Kodiyeri Balakrishnan. Modi is unlikely to take up the gauntlet but the constituency is the agenda for the BJP. Even Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath flew down to Kerala to address a rally in Pathanamthitta.
Pathanamthitta shot to national limelight as the constituency housing the Sabarimala Ayyappa Temple, which was in the eye of a political storm after the Supreme Court struck down an unwritten ban on women in the famed pilgrim centre. While the CPM-headed Kerala government promised to abide by the court order, the BJP and the Congress chose to ride the backlash against the reform.
By the time the Supreme Court takes a final decision on the hill shrine, all political formations are likely to have their candidates in place for the election. A victory in Pathanamthitta has become crucial for all the fronts to justify their positions in the conflict. The political capital to be gained from a victory is immense.
Pathanamthitta comprises seven assembly segments: Kanjirappally, Poonjar, Adoor, Ranni, Konni, Aranmula and Thiruvalla. The Congress-led United Democratic Front won only Konni and Kanjirappally in the 2016 assembly elections. The CPM-led Left Democratic Front won Adoor, Ranni, Aranmula and Thiruvalla, while P C George retained Poonjar as an unaffiliated candidate.
The Congress has won the bigger parliamentary constituency ever since the delimitation in 2008. Anto Antony defeated CPM's K Ananthagopan for 1,11,206 votes in 2009. In 2014, he defeated Philipose Thomas, a former Congress leader who sided with the LDF, for 56,191 votes. BJP's M T Ramesh scored 1,38,954 votes. Philipose Thomas's namesake candidate managed to get 16,493 votes.
When the UDF won 65.84 percent of votes, the LDF won 35.48 percent.
The LDF chose to line up behind Thomas when he parted ways with the Congress in protest against the party's stand on the proposed Aranmula airport. The party thought it did not stand a chance in the constituency given its candidate's performance in 2009.
Pathanamthitta had 13,23,906 voters in 2014. As many as 8,71,251 of them voted in the election.
Considered to be a Congress bastion, Pathanamthitta has a sizable proportion of Nair and Christian votes.
If the voters cared for issues such as the Aranmula airport and a slide in prices of rubber five years ago, the political climate has undergone a sea change this time.
The ruling CPM has reasons to worry because it has antagonised the Nair Service Society on the issue of women's entry to Sabarimala. Despite several rounds of compromise talks the NSS leadership is firm on its resolve against letting women into the temple. The CPM, however, is confident that the government's stand has the backing of ordinary people. The party believes that it has a momentum in its favour in Pathanamthitta, where the Congress candidate's lead was cut by half in 2014.
The party is also trying to sell the development activities initiated by the LDF government and the rehabilitation works undertaken after a devastating flood in August.
The LDF, however, is far from zeroing in on a candidate for Pathanamthitta. It could field an independent like Thomas or let a smaller ally contest the seat. K J Thomas and Janadhipathya Kerala Congress chairman Francis George are probable candidates.
Even the UDF is a divided house when it comes to the selection of a candidate. Anto Antony has several challengers even though the Congress high command wants all sitting MPs to be given another chance. Congress leaders in Pathanamthitta is not amused to let an outsider win from their home turf. They have been batting for one of the local leaders this time.
District Congress chief Babu George and former chief P Mohanraj have already come out in opposition to Antony.
Apart from Antony, P J Kurian and P C Vishnunath are also probable candidates for Pathanamthitta.
The UDF counts on its backing of the Sabarimala protests to turn into votes this time. It also expects support from community organisations such as the NSS. The party is preparing to target the LDF for its stand on the Sabarimala issue and the lapses in flood rehabilitation.
The biggest worry for the Congress, however, is BJP's ability to eat into its vote base. The party has been trying hard to retain its base in the face of a BJP onslaught.
The BJP, on its part, counts Pathanamthitta as one of the three parliamentary seats in Kerala where it stands a chance, the other two being Thiruvananthapuram and Thrissur. The party's trump card is of course the Sabarimala agitation. The party has been steadily improving its tally in the constituency. If K Balakrishna Menon won only 56,294 votes in 2009, M T Ramesh increased the score to 1,38,954 in 2014, primarily as a result of the party's handling of the airport issue.
The BJP expects the support of organisations such as the NSS. Union minister Alphons Kannanthanam, Rajya Sabha MP Suresh Gopi and Ramesh are the probable candidates.
