Congress dabbles with post-poll arithmetic on seats, allies

The central leadership of the Congress (INC) is busy with tabulations.

According to an internal calculation, taking into consideration the entire regional scenario in various States, the Congress is expecting 135 – 145 seats.

In case it is able to put up a stellar performance in the States of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Uttarakhand or Himachal Pradesh, where the Congress is engaged in a direct fight with BJP, the party expects to win up to 160 seats.

The United Progressive Alliance (UPA), lining up all the coalition parties, might be able to win up to 200-210 seats, according to the Congress estimates.

The party is hoping to reach 272, the magical number of absolute majority with the support of All India Trinamool Congress, Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).

The estimates were drawn up based on the surveys conducted by the party recently.

Apart from this, the AICC president Rahul Gandhi was conducting surveys in his personal capacity through private agencies, party sources said.

According to the postulations of the Congress, the Modi Wave that swept over the country during last Lok Sabha polls is absent this time. And this would naturally reflect in the number of the seats the BJP may win in the polls.

The party estimates that since the allies of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) are feeble compared to the UPA, the chances for the NDA to get a majority is pretty scarce. In case the number of seats that BJP could win for the polls fall below 200, Narendra Modi will not be able to return to power, as per the calculations of the Congress.

Hopes in TN

Tamil Nadu extends the highest hopes to Congress among the States where the party has formed alliances with local allies.

The party hopes to win up to 35 seats with the support of the DMK. Even though Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) of Bihar and Janata Dal (Secular) – JDS of Karnataka may not gain such shining victories, the party expects to fare well in these States too.

There are fears that the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) of Maharashtra may come up with a dull performance. Kerala, Punjab and Chhattisgarh are the three States where the Congress is hoping to take the lead on their own.

Allies outside UPA?

Congress is viewing Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party as the most trustworthy of the parties outside UPA as it is almost certain that alliances will have to be forged with non-UPA parties post-elections. The support of Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress and Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party can be beneficial, but the INC is wary of the bargains that they may raise in future.

The Congress is also actively considering the chances of forging ties with Y.S. Jaganmohan Reddy’s YSR Congress in Andhra Pradesh after the elections.