BJP recovers from assembly poll shock in MP, set to regain lost glory

Bhopal: The exit polls conducted by various TV channels for the Lok Sabha elections in Madhya Pradeh's 29 seats predicted a sweep for BJP with the saffron party all set to grab 24-27 seats.

The exit poll by NEWS18-IPSOS said the BJP will get 24-27 seats while it forecast 2-4 constituencies for the Congress. Similarly, India Today-Axis MY India predicted 26-28 seats for the BJP, 1-3 for the Congress. Chanakya-News 24 gave 27 seats for BJP and 2 for the Congress and the Republic TV-CVoter projects 24 seat for BJP and 5 for Congress.

Madhya Pradesh, where elections have always been a contest between the BJP and the Congress, had seen the Congress surging ahead in the assembly polls held last year with the Kamal Nath-led government coming to power after 15 years of BJP rule. In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP had won 27 seats in the state. If the exit polls are any indication, the BJP is unlikely to lose any major seats in the seats even though it fared badly in the 2018 assembly elections.

However, according to the voting pattern witnessed in the 2018 assembly elections, the BJP was expected to lose 11 Lok Sabha seats.

The Congress, which had won just two seats in 2014, was leading in 11 Lok Sabha seats as per the assembly poll results. In two constituencies where Congress had won in 2014 elections, as per the exit polls, the party will hold its sway in Chhindwara but it may lose Guna segment.

“We have seen the exit polls in 2004 and in 2018 when five states went to elections. All exit polls were showing defeat of Congress. However, all of us have seen the real results. Just wait for May 23, the truth will be out. Congress seats will certainly increase in MP. The reality of BJP’s propaganda and sloganeering will be known,” tweeted Madhya Pradesh Chef Minister Kamal Nath after the exit poll results came out.

The Assembly election voting pattern had indicated a Congress edge in Morena, Bhind, Gwalior, Tikamgarh, Shahdol, Mandla, Chhindwara, Rajgarh, Dewas, Ratlam, Dhar and Betul. However, the exit polls show that the Congress advantage in the assembly polls was neutralised by the BJP surge.

There are 14 Lok Sabha seats in MP where the Congress was unable to win in the past 15 years. They are Bhopal, Indore, Vidisha, Morena, Bhind, Sagar, Tikamgarh, Damoh, Khajuraho, Satna, Jabalpur, Betul, Rewa and Balaghat.

In the absence of any pan-India wave this time, both the parties had to rely on candidates to grab the vote share.

In Bhopal, which the Congress never won in the past 30 years, the party gave tough fight to BJP this time by fielding former Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Digvijaya Singh against BJP's Pragya Singh Thakur, who is an accused in the Malegaon bomb blast case.

According to the exit polls, BJP continued to maintain its hold in the Malwa– Nimar belt, a stronghold of the saffron party. In 2014, the BJP had won all the 8 seats in the region.

In the Assembly elections, the Congress had won 35 seats from the region and had formed the government.

The 29 Lok Sabha constituencies of Madhya Pradesh went to polls in four phases on April 29, May 6, 12 and 19.