Analysis | Left, Right and Centre: Kerala's 'exit map' sketches a canvas of troubles

If pollsters get it right, there is a sea change in the mood of voters in Kerala.

That is from the Assembly elections of 2016 as well as the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

The state had mostly dilly-dallied with the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) and the CPM-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) in assembly polls.

In Lok Sabha polls, the scenario was more of a tilt towards the UDF, considering that it was always a bigger national player than the Left.

Voters had given a sweeping mandate to the LDF in 2004 Lok Sabha polls, with the Congress failing to open its account.

Ironically, the Congress-led UPA went on to form the government at the Centre then, with the backing of the Left.

Poll vision

The pollsters say the UDF is making gains across the state. The surprise here is that in the northern Malabar region also, it is making inroads.

It could even wrest Kasaragod, considered a CPM bastion, where political violence claimed lives of two youngsters on the eve of polls.

It is not clear how that has influenced voters, but surveys are unanimous in predicting a UDF sweep.

If a UDF sweep indeed happened, there could have been a host of factors.

The most prominent among them would be a shift in preferences of minority voters, who had rallied behind the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) in the 2016 assembly polls.

So why would the minority voters shift their loyalty to the UDF?

The reasons are obvious.

The minority voters of Kerala do not live in fear in their home state, but think that a Congress-led dispensation is best suited to take on a rampaging saffron onslaught nationally.

They have seen the erosion of the base of the Left nationally.

They would have probably calculated that the Left may end up winning seats from Kerala alone.

Moreover, even if the Left wins anywhere, the compulsions of ideology would necessitate that in order to oppose the BJP, it would back anyone else, read a Cong-led dispensation or a regime backed by all anti-BJP forces.

So wisdom, or in political parlance a sort of tactical voting, prevailed.

The minority voters in Kerala are overwhelmingly opposed to the idea of a BJP-led dispensation. There is no need to be a political pundit to figure this out.

Hence, the probable preference to the UDF this time.

This does not necessarily mean that the preference would continue in the run-up to the assembly polls in 2021.

The Muslim minorities could still back the LDF, more so if a saffron surge predicted nationally in the exit polls, would have its repercussions in the southern state.

And if a saffron lawmaker gets elected to the Lok Sabha from the state, as is being projected, the BJP would unleash another major push in the state to dismantle its bipolar polity.

That would be somewhat similar to the BJP's efforts in Tripura, West Bengal and Odisha, states where the saffron outfit is making inroads as per exit polls.

In such a scenario, the Muslim minority would still back an LDF-led dispensation in the state, if they perceive that their peaceful coexistence with the majority community is at peril.

That is a distinct possibility.

The CPM may have already sensed a shift in the minorities' stance towards the party.

When CPM Kannur district secretary M V Jayarajan publicly demanded that voters wearing niqab should be thoroughly checked at polling booths, it shocked many.

Though the statement was made in the context of the bogus voting row, there was an strange political admission camouflaged in that.

The Left is facing an erosion of its vote base among its traditional Hindu backers also.

The silent voices of disillusion the CPM faces from its traditional backers from the majority Hindu community stems from the unexpressed feeling that the party is more than accommodative to the Muslim minorities, while being belligerently 'anti Hindu'.

Does this ring a bell?

Now let us rope in the Sabarimala protests to these silent perceptions.

The picture would gain more clarity.

Some of the CPM's traditional backers see the LDF government's response to the Sabarimala row, or Pinarayi government's stubborn insistence to carry out the apex court order allowing women of all ages to enter the hill shrine, as taking them, read the CPM's Hindu backers, for granted.

That was unacceptable to them, though they could have remained silent fearing the mighty party machinery's ire in case they voiced their opposition.

The erosion in minority votes may have also been, to a certain extent, due to the candidature of Rahul Gandhi from Wayanad. Remember, the CPM saw red after that announcement.

It is another matter that the a section of the minorities fears that the CPM might adopt a similar hardline stance on their religious institutions and traditional moorings.

But that line of thinking is mostly centered around the radical or hardline communal elements, who have never backed the CPM.

A section of the Christian population also sees the Left plotting to invade on their religious turf via administrative measures.

Here again, the Christian minorities have mostly veered around the UDF. Or rather a majority of them have stuck to the UDF, almost always.

The CPM still believes the minority voters, mainly the Muslims, can still tilt towards it depending on the circumstances.

But the erosion of its Hindu vote base is a cause of concern.

And Jayarajan's statement on niqab is perhaps the first veiled acceptance of this as well as an initial attempt to make amends.

The NDA

So that leaves the BJP-led NDA as the factor which arouses most curiosity.

It has been steadily increasing its vote share in the southern state, though it managed to get a legislator in the state Assembly in 2016 polls only.

And that too would not have happened without some tacit support from the UDF.

In the 2014 LS polls, the BJP came tantalisingly close to a win in the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha constituency, though Shashi Tharoor managed to pip O Rajagopal to the post in the last mile.

This time, if exit polls are to be taken serious note of, the NDA is once again close to electing a lawmaker from the state.

The close contest is again happening in Thiruvananthapuram, we are told.

This was visualised after the opinion polls also predicted that the NDA had an edge in Thiruvananthapuram, apart from Pathanamthitta, the epicentre of the Sabarimala protests.

Now, Pathanamthitta is at best a tough contest.

So Thiruvananthapuram again emerges as the BJP's best shot at getting a saffron imprint in Lok Sabha from Kerala.

There is a definite chunk of minority votes, especially in coastal areas of the district, which helped Tharoor cross the tide in 2014.

That was despite a Modi wave and Tharoor's own personal woes.

There are no such triggers for the BJP this time.

And a silent polarisation was likely post the opinion polls wherein an NDA victory was projected.

That cuts across Muslim and Christian communities.

Some exit polls suggest that the LDF's percentage of votes has dipped even from the last time's 28.5 per cent.

If these votes fell en block in Kummanam's kitty, which could be dubbed wishful thinking, then there is a scent of saffron.

The erosion of voter-base across state, at least going by exit polls, is hurting the Left more than anyone else.

The larger picture for the BJP is that its voter base is not growing. It is confined to certain personality votes in 2-3 constituencies without which the vote share would have actually dipped.

So there is trouble in store for all stake holders.

Now, parties can dabble with the real math after May 23.

The NDA got 10.4 per cent votes in 2014 Lok Sabha polls, but this rose to 16 per cent in 2016 assembly elections. If pollsters are to be believed, this has actually dropped to 15 per cent.

The 15 per cent figure itself has been achieved by riding on a surge in Thrissur, Thiruvananthapuram and Pathanamthitta constituencies, where star candidates including Suresh Gopi put up better-than-expected performances.

Essentially this means the NDA has failed to convince voters across the spectrum in Kerala and relies on individual crowd pullers. Not a healthy trend for a cadre party.