Kozhikode: With Kerala standing adamant against the apparent 'second Modi wave' in rest of the country, political analysts in the state think that the Sabarimala issue had an impact not only in south Kerala but in the northern parts of the state also.
Political observers feel that anti-Modi minority voters and anti-CPM Ayyappa devotees must have come together in North Kerala to vote en masse for the UDF, thus expressing their anger against the Modi policies and the stubborn attitude of Kerala chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan on the Sabarimala issue.
Pinarayi Vijayan's handling of the Sabarimala issue, especially his haste to get the Supreme Court verdict implemented and his decision to sneak in two women into the hill shrine, seems to have angered the voters in north Kerala also.
As per the trends available till noon, UDF candidates are heading for huge wins in Kozhikode, Vadakara, Kannur, Kasaragod and Palakkad constituencies. A clear indication for the impact of Sabarimala in the north belt is K Sudhakaran's almost certain win in Kannur. He had openly sought votes in the name of Sabarimala. During the Sabarimala issue, the Congress had tactically stated that it is with the devotees and it had submitted an affidavit before the Supreme Court stating that the status quo should be maintained in the shrine.
However, the voters did not support the hardline stand of BJP on Sabarimala also. What added to the stellar show of UDF in north is the anti-BJP feeling of the minority communities. North Kerala, especially Ponnani, Kozhikode, Malappuram, Wayanad and Vadakara seats, has substantial Muslim population who, if the trends are any indication, had voted for the UDF to ensure a defeat of the rampaging NDA in the Hindi heartland.
Apparently, the minority community had seen only in Congress a clear rival to the BJP in the national level. The earlier opinion polls might have added to their fear of the NDA coming back to power with a brutal majority. However, their anti-BJP vote in Kerala was not good enough to stop the 'Modi wave'.
Another factor which played out in UDF's favour in north Kerala was the series of political killings, especially the brutal murder of two Youth Congress workers – Sharathlal and Kripesh-- at Periya in Kerala's Kasaragod district. The murders took place at a time when the UDF had already made the killing of another young leader SP Shuhaib as focus of their campaign in Kannur. In fact, it was the protests after the killing of Shuhaib that saw the comeback of K Sudhakaran into active politics after his defeat in the 2016 Assembly and 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
In Kozhikode, M K Raghavan, according to present trends, is set for a hat-trick. Raghavan's was the first name confirmed as UDF candidate in Kerala ahead of the campaigning. Though caught in a sting operation controversy towards the end of the campaign, he managed to ward it off well. Even by putting up a popular leader like A Pradeepkumar, who is the sitting MLA of Kozhikode north constituency, LDF could not do much against Raghavan.
The almost certain defeat of CPM's one of the most popular leaders and former Kannur district secretary P Jayarajan would be the worst one for the Left front. Vadakara got a celebrity status when Jayarajan's candidature was announced and there was a clamour from the UDF workers to filed an equally strong candidate against the LDF star. Listening to the workers' demand, Congress brought K Muraleedharan, who is the sitting MLA from the southern seat of Vattiyoorkavu, to the northern part of the state. Jayarajan also faces a lot of allegation about his role in the political violence in Kerala. It seems the North Kerala voters gave a thumps-down to the politics of violence playing out in this part of the otherwise peaceful 'God's own country'. Even in assembly segments considered LDF strongholds like Thalassery and Koothuparamba in Kannur district, the LDF could not make any impact this time.
