The general elections due in 2024 is not a done deal and it is BJP’s game plan to make it look like one, political analyst and activist Yogendra Yadav believes.
Yaadav, who has a track record as a successful psephologist, says the saffron party wants to wage a psychological warfare on its opponents with the narrative that they are indomitable in 2024.
It wants the opponents to concede defeat even before the polls, the Swaraj Abhiyan founder told Onmanorama in an exclusive interview.
Yadav explained why he supports Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra’ after making the shocking remark that ‘Congress should die’ in the aftermath of the grand old party’s drubbing in 2019 polls.
“When my house is on fire, I see only two parties coming to me. One with a bucket of water in his hand and another with petrol. In that case, the one with water is my friend. It doesn’t matter what happened in the past,” Yadav said.
The massive exercise, despite its blackout by what he termed the ‘Noida media’, has witnessed a unification of citizens concerned about the challenges faced by the Republic.
“It has broken the spiral of silence in the country. It has given people a sense that they are not alone,” Yadav said on the impact of the yatra after its south India leg.
The 2024 picture
The electoral equations pose a tough scenario for the BJP compared to 2019. He, however, made it clear that he was not making any prediction.
“The electoral equations now are very tough for the BJP than it was in 2019. The reason is simple. BJP is coming down in states like Bihar, Maharashtra and West Bengal. I’m not speaking about public mood. In Bihar, with Nitish Kumar switching sides, BJP would lose at least 25-30 seats. In Maharashtra, with Shiv Sena coming this side (anti-BJP Congress-NCP alliance), BJP loses 15-20 seats. There's no national Democratic Alliance (NDA) anymore. In Bengal BJP won 18 seats last time. It will lose at least another 10 there. In these three states alone the BJP will lose 50-60 seats, which is to say it's now on the wane. Any small shift in public opinion can bring the BJP down, he said.
An objective assessment of the conditions also offer a bleak picture for the BJP. “The economy is in shambles. Inflation has been beyond BJP’s control for almost for two years. Unemployment has hit a peak. Farmers are in a bad shape. These are things you can't hide beyond a point. Modi government's handling of Covid has been terrible and the situation on the China border is alarming. These are objective situations, which normally lead to regime change. Notwithstanding all these, the ‘hawa’ (wind) is for BJP and Modi. The narrative control is with BJP. If that can be broken, their dominance will collapse. That should be the task for the next one and a half year. For that what you need is not an opposition coalition. You need a new narrative and a new leader to present that narrative. A credible and believable communication. These are things to be worked on. The BJP is far more vulnerable. It can lose this election (2024) provided the opposition holds its nerves and works on a narrative,” he said.
The narrative that BJP always wins elections is a myth created by saffron party itself.
“They still don’t control half of state governments. From Bengal to Kerala and some other states there are 190 Lok Sabha seats where BJP wins only 30-35. There is a vast land in this country where BJP is still nowhere close to being a dominant player. BJP has created a hawa, but on the ground it's a different story,” he said.
He, however, acknowledged that BJP currently has the most efficient election machinery in the country. “If BJP has half a chance, they convert it into full chance. If opposition has a full chance they convert it into half a chance,” he said.
Kerala and the Left
Yadav hailed the Left parties in the country for defending secularism in the country though he was critical of the performance of the Marxists when they are in power. He said the Left character of the CPM was eroding under Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. He cited the Kerala government’s fascination for the SilverLine semi high-speed rail, which he termed a ‘vanity project’.
Post Bharat Jodo Rahul
Asked about the role of Rahul Gandhi in Indian politics after the Bharat Jodo movement, Yadav said: “When the Yatra began the public perception about Rahul Gandhi had been hugely negative even though people like me knew it was not true. That negativity to a large extent has been neutralised. If Rahul Gandhi keeps adding to his public image and stature. it would have one great consequence to the country. The perception that there's no alternative to Narendra Modi is his biggest asset. If Rahul Gandhi is seen by the public as who he is -- a fairly straightforward sincere person with deep commitment to constitutional values and deep empathy for the poor and the downtrodden – then Modi's biggest asset will shrink. Rahul Gandhi gaining stature is good for the country.”
