Anti-incumbency and infighting in the party will cost Congress dear in Rajasthan in the November 23 assembly elections.
The Manorama News-VMR pre-poll survey shows that the anti-incumbency wave against the Ashok Gehlot government and a big swing in favour of the BJP could decisively oust the Congress from power.
The Congress vote share is expected to fall to 37.4 per cent from 39.4 per cent in 2018, a negative swing of 1.9 per cent. This swing can bring down the Congress seats to the 67-75 range from the existing 100.
The BJP vote share, on the other hand, is expected to spike by nearly 5 per cent (4.8%), going from 38.8 per cent in 2018 to 43.6 per cent. The result could be the BJP winning seats in the 110-118 range. Now it has 73. In a House of 200, 101 is the simple majority.
The survey also predicts that 'others' -- Bahujan Samaj Party, Rashtriya Loktantrik Party and Independents -- will also experience a fall in vote share, from 21.9 per cent in 2018 to 19 per cent. These smaller parties together have not managed more than 20 seats in Rajasthan polls but could be decisive in certain constituencies.
Like Kerala, Rajasthan has consistently witnessed a see-saw battle between the BJP and the Congress -- none of these parties has secured back-to-back victories since 1993. The poll tracker survey results suggest the continuance of the trend.
The last time a party secured back-to-back win in Rajasthan was in 1993 when the BJP became the single-largest party repeating its victory from the previous state elections.
The BJP had recorded its biggest triumph in 2013 when it cornered 163 seats, nearly 82 per cent of the 200 seats on offer. Its vote share then was 45.2 per cent. The Congress's biggest win was in 1998 when it won 153 seats with a vote share of 44.95 per cent.
Rajasthan will vote on November 23. A total of 12,336 respondents participated in the survey.
Congress in Rajasthan has been a divided house for years with its Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and young leader Sachin Pilot leading rival factions.
In 2020, Sachin Pilot, with his supporters, rebelled against the state leadership, bringing the Ashok Gehlot government to the brink of collapse and rattling the Congress leadership.
