Analysis | The China question after Operation Sindoor

Operation Sindoor has just taken place, in which India has launched missile attacks on selected terrorist related locations in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and Pakistan in retaliation for last month’s terrorist massacre of innocent civilians in Pahalgam. While a lot of attention is now on what, if any, escalation might occur from Pakistan in response to India’s actions, an equally important question is what will China do to support Pakistan in this dangerous situation?

China has been actively supporting Pakistan for many years, both economically and with the supply of defence equipment like modern fighter aircraft, such as the J-10, as well as weaponry, such as the PL-15 long-range air-to-air missile, to arm them. But in this current situation, can China increase its support for Pakistan by directly attacking India, either in Ladakh or on our North Eastern borders? Such an attack will not only help Pakistan by attempting to split Indian military forces across two fronts, but also help China gain strategically advantageous positions on its borders with us.

To answer this question, we need to first understand that the Indian armed forces have come a long way from the China war of 1962. We are far better equipped today, and more importantly, we have created the battle forces with suitably trained and armed soldiers to make any attempt by China to invade India a costly failure for them. In fact, the Indian Armed Forces are now equipped to successfully fight a defensive battle on two fronts, namely against China and Pakistan.

There are four main reasons why we can be confident of deterring any collusive aggression by China. Firstly, the Himalayas are a formidable barrier for anyone attempting to invade India from the North and East and have protected us from the likes of Genghis Khan over the millennia. This is why past invasions of India have generally taken place through the North West. Secondly, it’s a well-established military fact that for any offensive action to succeed in the mountains, an attacker will need to have a manpower superiority of eight to one at the minimum. Even this ratio might not prove sufficient for China in the terrain of the Tibetan plateau, considering the rarefied atmosphere and harsh conditions prevalent there. While China has increased their fighting forces in Tibet over the last few years, this is nowhere near adequate to pose a serious threat to India. Furthermore, in order to build up adequate forces for a major offensive through Sikkim, Chumbi Valley or Arunachal Pradesh, the Chinese will have to position a sizeable force in Tibet after the winter season and between May and October, which precludes any threat at this point in time. Thirdly, while China has built roads, rail lines and pipelines from Eastern China to Tibet in order to support its forces facing India, today we have the ability to destroy these lines of communication and logistics in the initial stages of any conflict, thereby isolating the limited forces in Tibet. The same applies to China’s northern lines of communication through Aksai Chin. And finally, China’s main focus today is on Taiwan and the South China Sea, and so they would not want to get embroiled in a major land war with India, which would weaken them considerably, especially if other anti-China forces, such as the US and its allies, get involved too in support of India.

Bangladesh, in its recent none-too-friendly disposition to India, could hypothetically support China and Pakistan in any action against us. However, we have sufficient forces in the east to deter any such actions by them. Furthermore, with their current internal turmoil, this scenario is highly unlikely.

Thus, while China can provide moral and material support to Pakistan in the present situation, it is unlikely to launch a major offensive to distract and weaken us. However, in the highly improbable event of a major Chinese aggression, the Indian Armed Forces have the capability to defend our country successfully.