Analysis | Pakistan forced to stop now or face rout

Pakistan’s drone attacks on civilian homes, hospitals, churches and gurudwaras along the western front, and multiple attempts to hit Indian military establishments and airfields in Srinagar, Jammu, Amritsar and several other places — including renewed efforts to strike the strategic Jammu airport with kamikaze drones later on Saturday — make it clear that in the last four days of the conflict post-Pahalgam, and despite repeated failures, Pakistan is still struggling to score a hit. Yet, in a desperate bid to save face, it continues to engage India. It has been sending troops to reinforce its positions along the border with India, posturing to attack, but it is evident that this is more an attempt to defend itself.

On the face of it, it looks as if Pakistan is determined to escalate the ongoing conflict beyond skirmishes or the sub-conventional level to a full-blown war. But if it had intended to do so, it would not have hesitated for so long. A wise professional always considers the cards at hand and knows how and when to call a bluff.

Since the bluff hasn’t worked, Pakistan is now playing the least expensive game — in terms of cost and damage to men and material — by using drones and missiles. It can’t afford to use and lose its F-16 and JF-17 aircraft or commit its tanks without sufficient fuel to run them.

Earlier, Pakistan had also threatened to use its nuclear weapons if its existence was at peril. Statements like ‘dare not’ are only made when one is scared and wants to prevent an impending strong reprisal. Once the reverse flow has begun, the only option is to put up a ‘supposedly’ brave front — and hence, the game of drones.

Even this game of drones is unlikely to last longer than a few more days. Ultimately, Pakistan has to either commit its last arsenal to prevent defeat at India’s hands or accept sane advice to climb down.

It seems Pakistan has not understood why the Chinese are worried or why they are not actively getting involved. It is basically because China has given them ‘E’-grade equipment, meant for export and to test out its efficacy against India. Unfortunately, China sees that incompetent hands handling this equipment will only put a bad label on China’s defence export prospects to African and Latin American countries.

China also sees its CPEC project at stake. India has carried out missile attacks on three key Pakistan Air Force bases — including Nur Khan in Rawalpindi, Murid in Chaklala, and Rafiqui in Shorkot — on Saturday morning. It is apparent that India is moving towards gaining air superiority, and once achieved, the highway is open for them to dissect Pakistan, thus jeopardising the CPEC corridor. Even China would want Pakistan to stand down.

What may further worry Pakistan are the BLA attacks at 39 locations on Saturday itself and trouble on the Afghan border. Twenty personnel from Turkiye have also left for home, and Pakistan stands alone and surrounded from all directions.

The Saturday morning briefing by the Indian Foreign Secretary once again reiterated India’s position that it does not want escalation, provided the Pakistan Army respects the same. It seems that for Pakistan there are no options left but to accept de-escalation, acknowledge its fault, and dismantle the terror machine — else, the road to POK would open soon. One of Pakistan Air Force’s senior Air Marshals has openly suggested that they hope America puts strong pressure on India, else six lakh Pakistan Army personnel against India’s 16 lakh stand no chance.