India's population to peak at 1.7 billion as fertility drops below replacement rate: UN

India's population is projected to reach 1.46 billion in 2025, according to a new United Nations demographic report. The report also revealed that the country's total fertility rate has fallen below the replacement level, PTI reported.

The UNFPA’s 2025 State of World Population (SOWP) Report, titled The Real Fertility Crisis, calls for a shift in focus from fears of falling fertility to addressing unmet reproductive goals.

"Millions of people are unable to realise their desired fertility goals," the report states. "This is the real crisis—not underpopulation or overpopulation—and the solution lies in greater reproductive agency: a person's ability to make free and informed choices about sex, contraception, and starting a family."

The report highlights key shifts in population composition, fertility rates, and life expectancy, signalling a major demographic transition.

India’s total fertility rate has now declined to 1.9 births per woman, below the replacement level of 2.1. This means, on average, Indian women are having fewer children than needed to maintain the population size from one generation to the next, excluding migration factors.

Despite the slowing birth rate, India’s youth population remains substantial: 24% are aged 0-14, 17% are between 10-19, and 26% fall in the 10-24 age group.

The country also has 68% of its population in the working-age group (15-64 years), offering a potential demographic dividend—if complemented by sufficient employment opportunities and supportive policies.

Currently, 7% of the population is aged 65 and above, a share expected to rise in the coming decades as life expectancy improves. By 2025, life expectancy at birth is projected to be 71 years for men and 74 years for women.

According to the UN estimates, India’s population stands at 1,463.9 million at present.

India, now the world’s most populous nation with nearly 1.5 billion people, is expected to see its population grow to around 1.7 billion before beginning a decline roughly 40 years from now.

Behind these numbers are the experiences of millions of couples starting or expanding families, as well as women who had limited choice over whether, when, or how often they became pregnant, the report notes.

In 1960, when India’s population was around 436 million, the average woman had nearly six children. At that time, fewer than 1 in 4 women used contraception, and less than half attended primary school (World Bank, 2020).

Since then, gains in education, reproductive healthcare access, and women’s empowerment have brought change. Today, the average Indian woman has about two children.

However, while women in India and elsewhere enjoy more rights and choices than previous generations, significant gaps remain in ensuring their full reproductive autonomy.

The UN report classified India among middle-income countries undergoing rapid demographic transformation, with its population doubling time now estimated at 79 years.

“India has made significant progress in lowering fertility rates—from nearly five children per woman in 1970 to about two today—thanks to improved education and access to reproductive healthcare,” said Andrea M Wojnar, UNFPA India Representative.

“This has led to major reductions in maternal mortality, meaning millions more mothers are alive today, raising children and contributing to their communities. Yet, deep inequalities persist across states, castes, and income groups.

“The real demographic dividend comes when everyone has the freedom and means to make informed reproductive choices. India has a unique opportunity to demonstrate how reproductive rights and economic prosperity can advance together,” she added.