Bihar exit polls 2025: NDA projected to secure majority, MGB trails far behind

Patna: As the final phase of voting for the Bihar assembly elections 2025 concluded on Tuesday evening, exit polls have begun predicting a comfortable victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the BJP and JD(U). The Mahagathbandhan (MGB), comprising the RJD and Congress, appears headed for a distant second place, according to multiple survey agencies.

Exit poll projections
Across various agencies, the NDA’s projected seat tally ranges between 133 and 167, suggesting a clear majority in the 243-member assembly.

• Matrize: NDA 147–167 | MGB 70–90 | JSP 5 | Others 10
• Peoples Pulse: NDA 133–159 | MGB 75–101 | JSP 0–5 | Others 2–8
• Dainik Bhaskar: NDA 145–160 | MGB 73–91 | Others 5–10
• People’s Insight: NDA 133–148 | MGB 87–102 | JSP 0–2 | Others 3–6
• JVC: NDA 135–150 | MGB 88–103 | Others 3–7
• P-Marq: NDA 142–162 | MGB 80–98 | JSP 1–4 | Others 0–3

Phase-wise voting
The two-phase election saw a voter turnout of 65.08 per cent in the first phase held on November 6, and 67.14 per cent (till 5 pm) in the second phase on November 11. Counting of votes will take place on November 14, following which the Election Commission will declare the official results.

Seat share and alliances
Within the NDA, the BJP and JD(U) contested 101 seats each, while the LJP (Ram Vilas) fielded candidates in 29 constituencies, and the HAM(S) and RLM contested six each.

The Mahagathbandhan (Grand Alliance) fielded RJD candidates in 143 seats, followed by the Congress (61), CPI (9), CPI(M) (4), CPI(ML-L) (20), and VIP (15). A minimum of 122 seats is required for a majority in the assembly.

Political stakes
The high-stakes election will decide whether Nitish Kumar retains power under the NDA banner or if Tejashwi Yadav’s Mahagathbandhan can mount a comeback.

In the 2020 assembly polls, the NDA secured 125 seats, narrowly beating the Mahagathbandhan’s 110. Despite the NDA forming the government, RJD emerged as the single largest party with 75 seats.

Interestingly, most exit polls in 2020 had predicted a Mahagathbandhan victory — including India Today–Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya, both of which projected a landslide for the RJD-led alliance. The actual outcome, however, defied these forecasts, underscoring the uncertain accuracy of exit polls in the state’s volatile political landscape.

What are exit polls?
Exit polls are post-voting surveys conducted outside polling stations to gauge how people voted and why. They provide early indicators of possible outcomes but are not always accurate. These polls often reflect voter sentiment and trends before the official results are announced.