Bihar exit polls 2025: NDA predicted to retain power, Axis My India sees RJD as single-largest party

Two fresh exit polls released on Wednesday point to a clear edge for the BJP–JD(U)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar, with both Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya forecasting a comfortable lead over the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) alliance. However, Axis My India has projected that the RJD could emerge as the single-largest party, even as the NDA secures a majority overall.

Both surveys also predict a poor debut for Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP).

Latest exit poll projections
Axis My India: NDA 121–141 | MGB 98–118 | JSP 0–2
Vote share: NDA 43% | MGB 41% | JSP 4%
Party-wise estimate: RJD 67–76 | JD(U) 56–62 | BJP 50–56 | Congress 17–21 | VIP 3–5 | Left 10–14
Preferred CM: Tejashwi Yadav (34%) | Nitish Kumar (22%)

Today’s Chanakya: NDA 160 ± 12 | MGB 77 ± 12
Vote share: NDA 44% (± 3%) | MGB 38% (± 3%)

Other major exit polls
Matrize: NDA 147–167 | MGB 70–90 | JSP 5 | Others 10
Peoples Pulse: NDA 133–159 | MGB 75–101 | JSP 0–5 | Others 2–8
Bhaskar: NDA 145–160 | MGB 73–91 | Others 5–10
People’s Insight: NDA 133–148 | MGB 87–102 | JSP 0–2 | Others 3–6
JVC: NDA 135–150 | MGB 88–103 | Others 3–7
P-Marq: NDA 142–162 | MGB 80–98 | JSP 1–4 | Others 0–3

Election snapshot
The Bihar assembly elections 2025 were held in two phases — on November 6 and 11 — recording a combined voter turnout of 67.14%, the highest in the state’s electoral history. The counting of votes will take place on November 14.

Of the 243 assembly seats, a party or alliance needs 122 to form the government.

The NDA — comprising the BJP, JD(U), and LJP (Ram Vilas) — is aiming for another term, while the Mahagathbandhan, led by the RJD, Congress, and Left parties, is looking to return to power under Tejashwi Yadav.

In the 2020 Bihar elections, the NDA had won 125 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan secured 110, with the RJD emerging as the largest single party. Many pollsters that year had inaccurately predicted an opposition victory, underscoring that exit polls can sometimes deviate from final results.

The 2025 polls, therefore, are seen as a critical test for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s leadership and Tejashwi Yadav’s growing political influence.