NDA retains power in Bihar with three-fourth majority, decimates Mahagathbandhan

Patna: The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) claimed a decisive victory in Bihar’s assembly elections on Friday, reaffirming Prime Minister Narendra Modi's popularity and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's enduring appeal, while delivering a crushing blow to the Mahagathbandhan, which included the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).

With results indicating an overwhelming performance, the BJP and JD(U)—the NDA’s two main partners—are set for an 85% strike rate in the 101 seats each they contested. The alliance is set for a resounding "200 paar" victory, securing a three-fourths majority in the 243-member assembly. The BJP is poised to emerge as the single largest party.

In his victory speech at BJP headquarters, Prime Minister Modi lauded the massive win, stating, "The people of Bihar, with their unshakable confidence, have taken the state by storm (garda uda diya)." He celebrated the victory as a defeat of the "communal MY formula of jungle raj," referring to the Muslim-Yadav base of the RJD, and proclaimed a new "positive MY — Mahila and Youth" formula for Bihar’s future.

BJP secured 87 seats, up from 74 in 2020, while Nitish Kumar's JD(U) won 78 seats, a significant increase from 43. The NDA's combined tally comfortably crosses the majority threshold of 122 seats, with BJP and JD(U) leading in additional constituencies. In contrast, the RJD’s seat count plummeted to just 24 from 75, while Congress managed only six out of 61 contested seats.

Chief Minister Kumar, who overcame anti-incumbency sentiment, thanked the people for their “landslide mandate.” In a post on X, he expressed gratitude to the voters and acknowledged Prime Minister Modi’s unwavering support for his government. "For this, I bow to all the esteemed voters of the state," he wrote.

A mix of state and central welfare schemes, particularly those focused on women and economically backward classes (EBCs), played a key role in the NDA’s victory. Modi’s repeated reference to the "jungle raj" under RJD, combined with the success of the "double-engine" government model, resonated with voters. The NDA's broader caste alliances, particularly among women and youth, and their appeal to Muslim voters in certain constituencies, indicated a possible shift in voting patterns.

The unprecedented turnout among women voters and the NDA's focus on their welfare—such as monetary aid for women and a strong stance on the liquor ban—were among the key factors driving the alliance's success. Women voters, in particular, showed overwhelming support, reflecting the success of the NDA’s targeted outreach.

Meanwhile, Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), considered an "X factor" in the race, failed to make an impact despite a high-profile campaign addressing issues like unemployment and migration.

Celebrations broke out at BJP and JD(U) offices in Patna, with party workers chanting slogans and bursting crackers. Outside Chief Minister Kumar’s residence, JD(U) workers celebrated with posters reading ‘Tiger Abhi Zinda Hai,’ a nod to Kumar's political resilience and refusal to bow to speculation about his leadership.

In a surprising turn, Kumar—despite concerns over his health and allegations of political fatigue—proved his political mettle once again. Known for his "sushasan babu" (man of good governance) image, he delivered key benefits like pension hikes and women’s empowerment schemes during the election period, further solidifying his position.

BJP’s performance further solidifies its dominance on the national stage, building momentum after its successes in Delhi, Maharashtra, and Haryana. The victory also counterbalances the setbacks the party faced in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, where it had to rely on allies.

Smaller NDA allies like LJP (RV), led by Union Minister Chirag Paswan, won 18 seats, while Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha and Upendra Kushwah’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha bagged five and four seats respectively. These victories, particularly in Dalit-heavy constituencies, underscored the BJP’s broad caste-based alliances.

On the other hand, the Mahagathbandhan—led by the RJD, Congress, and three Left parties—faced a humiliating defeat. Despite predictions that RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav would be the most popular choice for Chief Minister, the alliance failed to retain its traditional support base. The "M-Y" (Muslim-Yadav) combination, once a cornerstone of RJD’s strength, failed to deliver as expected.

The Congress, often seen as a weak link in the INDIA alliance, performed poorly, with Rahul Gandhi’s campaign against the BJP focusing on "vote theft" failing to resonate with voters. AIMIM, which had contested 32 seats, won just five, further highlighting the shifting dynamics in Bihar’s political landscape.

The NDA’s triumph in Bihar is seen as a significant political signal ahead of upcoming assembly elections in West Bengal and Assam, slated for the next six months. With allegations of irregularities in voter rolls and the Election Commission's handling of the polls, the victory nonetheless remains a powerful endorsement of the NDA’s governance and electoral strategy.