It appears as if a new norm has been established. For the third consecutive year, extremely heavy rainfall in early August has let loose widespread destruction across Kerala.
On the west, the coastal areas are being battered by a rough sea. On the east, along the fragile high ranges, sustained heavy rainfall in the last two days has set off innumerable high- and low-intensity landslides. And the midlands have been flooded by the rivers that have been bloated far beyond their banks by both the intense spells and the high-velocity waters dumped on them by the landslides.
Grim prognosis
Meteorological models do not predict any major relief in the coming days, though the intensity is expected to lessen slightly. To make things look even dismal, Indian Meteorological Department says that another low pressure area is likely to develop over north and adjoining west-central Bay of Bengal around August 9.
On Saturday (August 8), extremely heavy rainfall has been predicted only for certain areas in Kannur, Wayanad, Malappuram, Palakkad and Idukki. On Sunday (August 9), when the intensity is expected to fall further, extreme conditions could prevail only he western pars of Wayanad that border Kozhikode and the eastern and northeastern patches of Idukki.
According to the IMD, Idukki, Thrissur, Palakkad and Wayanad will receive "extremely heavy" rainfall on August 8 (Saturday). However, on August 9, it does not show any district getting "extremely heavy" rainfall.
Surprise tragedy
If last year it was in Wayanad's Puthumala area, this August the most horrendous tragedy has befallen poor plantation workers cooped up in primitive worker colonies in Pettumudi Estate in Rajamalai near Munnar in Idukki district.
A sudden landslide long before sunrise on Friday fully buried four worker settlements housing 80-odd people in 30 rooms. 15 bodies have been recovered. Another 15 were rescued from the debris, four of whom are said to be highly critical. The search for others are on with the help of National Disaster Response Force.
Idukki town, Peerumedu and Munnar recorded extremely heavy rainfall on Friday; 226.4 mm, 261 mm, 229.4 mm respectively. Anythng above 200 mm is considered extremely heavy rainfall. In 2018, Idukki ihad received 800 mm of rainfall in three days. The weather models discount such an eventuality this time.
Unlike in Puthumala last year, where the residents were forewarned by the early low-intensity landslides in the area, a landslide near Pettumudi was unexpected. Though heavy rain was predicted in the area, this region was not officially designated as 'landslide prone'.
In places designated so, pre-emptive steps were taken. Two major landslides were reported in Mundakkai hills in Wayanad's Meppadi area, a region marked as landslide prone and included last year's disaster spot Puthumala. But there were no casualties because, expecting the worst, the district authorities had shifted the people to safer areas.
In fact, landslides should not have come as a surprise as the high range districts like Wayanad, Idukki, Malappuram and Kottayam had witnessed a massive spurt in rainfall in the last seven days from July 30 to August 5. For Wayanad, the rainfall departure from normal was 59 percent during the last week. For Idukki, it was 102 percent. For Malappuram, it was 60 percent. And for Kottayam, it was 215 percent. week.
And on August 6 alone, the departure from normal was even more astounding. Wayanad received 529 percent more than what was normal on August 6. Idukki got 847 percent. Malappuram, 225 percent. And Kottayam, 359 percent.
Rivers in spate
Low intensity landslides in the high ranges of Malappuram has caused the Chaliyar to swell and inundate Nilambur town. Heavy rainfall of 91 mm was recorded near Nilambur, on the eastern elevated regions of the district, on Friday.
The roads and shops at Janathappadi and Myladi, both along the banks of Chaliyar, went under water. Nearly 100 families in Karuvarakkundy were shifted to relief camps. Punnapuzha's water flowed over the Muttikkadavu and Muppini bridges.
And Ponnani Town on the west has been ravaged by an extremely turbulent sea and also heavy rainfall. At least 10 houses have been fully destroyed and more than 30 have been partially damaged.
Kottayam district, especially is eastern regions, also witnessed large-scale flooding. The water level in the rivers running through the district rose mostly on account of the water from the low-grade landslides that were reported from high range areas.
Pala town was flooded and Eerattupeta, Koottikkal and Mundakkayam were also affected.
Further south, in Pathanamthitta, three major rivers - Pampa, Manimala and Achenkoil - have risen beyond the warning level. Pampa Triveni, which was devastated n the 2018 floods, has also been flooded.
Periyar: Sole relief
The Periyar basin has also seen heavy rainfall, though not in the same scale as the last two years. Experts say that though the rain was was not as sustained as in the last two years, there were short-duration intense spells over the Periyar catchment area that spreads over 5398 sq kms.
The shutters of the Peringalkuthu dam has been opened after he water level rose quickly on August 6; the level shot up six metres in six hours.
The water from the Periyar reaches the midlands - notably Central Travancore areas like Kochi, Aluva, Kothamangalam, Paravoor and Muvattupuzha - through the Bhoothathan barrage. All the 15 shutters of the Bhoothathan barrage are now open.
Still, the Periyar causing floods like in 2018 looks a distant possibility as the four major dams that contribute abundantly to the Periyar basin - Idukki, Mullaperiyar, Neriamangalam and Idamalayar - need not have to open their shutters as they have kept their water levels way below even accepted levels.
That the Nedumbassery airport has not been flooded, experts say, is a sign that 2018 will not be repeated.
