Thiruvananthapuram: With Kerala recording one of the highest rates of COVID-19 spread in the country, experts suspect that Kerala may have 36 times more untraced cases than the confirmed ones.
The experts have come to this alarming conclusion in the second nationwide serological survey carried out by the ICMR . The figures could change if entire details of the test results in Kerala are given out.
Of the total number of people tested during the ICMR survey, 6.6 per cent were found to be infected with COVID-19. Going by these figures the number of infected people in Kerala could go up to a whopping 21.78 lakh. It is notable to mention here that when the tests were conducted in August, Kerala had 59,640 active cases of COVID-19.
Experts say the local variations in conducting tests and peculiarity of places where serological tests are carried out, often results in changes in the data. The survey was conducted in Palakkad, Thrissur, Ernakulam districts. However, the ICMR has not released the exact details of these districts yet.
At present Kerala has about 2 lakh COVID positive cases and 36 times of this would mean the state could have 72 lakh untraced infected people. It is observed that if 30 per cent people in the community become infected then the number of infected persons starts decreasing.
Going by these figures the number of untraced COVID patients in the state might come to 3.5 lakh and subsequently the numbers might fall further, says Dr N M Arun who is conducting a study on Covid data in the state.
At the same time Dr Padmanabha Shenoy says that the possibility of untraced cases in the community could be only 10-15 times of existing cases. He attributes this to high possibility of false positives because of the less diagnostic accuracy of test kits used for the serological survey.
Though the experts had requested the state government to conduct a serological survey in all 14 districts to get the exact number of COVID-19 patients and for effective planning of COVID prevention activities, the authorities are yet to take a decision on this proposal.
COVID infections spread extreme in Kerala. Testing rate low:IMA
The Indian Medical Association (IMA) has said that Kerala is witnessing one of highest surge in Covid- 19 cases in the country.
As per the study conducted by IMA, the moving growth rate or MGR of Covid - 19 in Kerala is double the national average. The state's MGR for seven days is 28 whereas at the national level it is only 11. If the 30 days MGR in the country was 45, in Kerala it is a whopping 98.
Other findings of the study
Testing in Kerala is less compared to other places. The testing was doubled when cases increased significantly in Delhi and Puducherry. In Delhi, Covid tests are being carried out among 153565 per 10 lakh population and in Puducherry it is 1,21,370 while in Kerala it is only 76,109.
The test positivity rate in Kannur is 12.6 percent which indicates a high rate of Covid - 19 spread.
Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, Kottyam, Idukki districts lack of ICU facilities.
Thiruvananthpuram district recorded an alarming 140 per cent increase in death rate during the last one week.
There’s been a 130 per cent increase in the number of persons under treatment for Covid during one month.
On August 29 the number of cases 21,532 and on September 26 it went up to 49,551.
