Manorama News-VMR Kerala exit poll: Neck-and-neck fight in 7 districts, slight edge for UDF

Manorama News-VMR exit poll has provided a hint of a neck-and-neck battle between incumbent Left Democratic Front (LDF) and opposition United Democratic Front (UDF) for the mandate to rule the state for next five years.

In the first part of the exit poll, the channel aired results of 73 seats from seven districts. UDF was tipped to win 38 seats, LDF 34 and NDA one.

The poll also predicted exciting photo finish in 18 constituencies.

The UDF was expected to retain two seats that it had won in 2016 in Kasaragod, increase its tally to 4 in Kannur (up from three), sweep all three seats in Wayanad (up from one), win nine seats in Kozhikode (up from four), increase its tally to 14 in Malappuram (up from 12), retain three seats in Palakkad and win three seats in (up from one) in Thrissur.

The poll showed LDF would suffer maximum losses in Kozhikode district.

Kasaragod

Prediction: LDF-2, UDF-2, NDA-1

The LDF might lose one seat from its 2016 tally of three in the district.

LDF would lose Udma constituency by a narrow margin. UDF candidate Balakrishnan would log 43.4% votes while LDF's CH Kunhambu would collect 42.2% votes.

The exit poll showed National Democratic Alliance (NDA) victory in Manjeswaram. Here, NDA candidate and BJP state president would collect 35.9% of the votes, while UDF's AKM Ashraf would get 35.3% votes. LDF's VV Rameshan would settle for the third position with 27% votes.

Kannur

Prediction: LDF - 7, UDF- 4. NDA - 0

UDF would earn a major gain in Kannur, where the poll predicted victory for District Congress Committee President Satheeshan Pacheni. He would topple incumbent and Minister for Ports Ramachandran Kadanappally. Pacheni would log 41% of votes while Kadannappally would get 37.4% votes.

LDF would win all its strongholds of Payyanur, Kalliassery, Taliparamba, Koothuparamba, Mattannur, Thalassery and Dharmadom, while UDF would win Azheekode, Kannur, Irikkur and Peravoor seats.

This means that UDF will win four seats, one seat more than the three it got in 2016, while LDF would win 7 seats.

Wayanad

Prediction: UDF -3, LDF -0, NDA -0

Wayanad would give UDF a big boost this time as the poll predicted that it would win all three seats up for grabs - Mananthavady, Sulthan Bathery and Kalpetta - in the hilly district. The front had won just one seat in 2016.

Kozhikode

Prediction: UDF - 9, LDF - 4, NDA - 0

If there was one district that could change the fortunes of UDF, it could be Kozhikode going by the exit poll prediction. UDF would gain seven seats from the LDF this time.

UDF enjoyed an edge in Vadakara, Nadapuram, Koyilandy, Balussery, Beypore, Kunnamangalam, Thiruvambady, Kuttiadi and Kozhikode South constituencies. LDF would win Perambra, Elathur, Kozhikode North and Koduvally.

Malappuram

Prediction: UDF - 14, LDF - 2

The exit poll predicted huge gains for the UDF in Malappuram district. Riding on the strength of Indian Union Muslim League, the UDF would increase its tally to 14 - up from 12 in 2016 - while the LDF would settle for two seats. UDF would gain Nilambur, Tanur and Thavanur from LDF, while it would lose Tirur to LDF. Congress leader V V Prakash, who died on Thursday morning, was tipped to win the Nilambur constituency.

Palakkad

Prediction: LDF - 9, UDF - 3, NDA - 0

LDF would maintain its edge in Palakkad district retaining all the nine seats it had won in 2016. UDF would retain the remaining three seats.

The poll predicted victory for Shafi Parambil of the UDF in Palakkad against Metroman E Sreedharan. LDF's A Prabhakaran would win Malampuzha, where NDA worked for an upset win.

Thrissur

Prediction: LDF - 10, UDF - 3

In 2016, UDF had won just one seat. The number would go up to three this time, according to the exit poll.

However, LDF would maintain its vice-like grip in the district winning the remaining 10 seats comfortably.

The second part of the exit poll results of 63 constituencies would be aired on Friday from 6.30 pm to 10.30pm.