Maths came into play after the Thrikkakara assembly bypoll campaign entered the whispering phase, as ground-level managers of political parties sought refuge in number crunching ahead of counting day.

And both the major fronts have spotted hope in the nitty-gritty of assumptions.

Thrikkakara voted on Tuesday to elect the successor of late Congress MLA P T Thomas, who passed away in December.

Though the constituency witnessed brisk polling from the start, the numbers showed a dip by the end of the day leaving the polling percentage at 68.77 – the lowest in the constituency's history.

The ruling CPM-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the opposition Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) indulged in a high-octane election campaign and tried to boost the polling percentage.

However, a slight dip in the number of votes cast compared to the previous polls (70.36 in 2021 assembly polls) has left the parties a bit confused.

Still, both the LDF and the UDF claim they are on track to win the bypoll based on booth-level assessments of cadres.

Thrikkakara has elected only Congress MLAs in three assembly polls since the formation of the constituency in 2011.

So, its decade-long electoral history gives the Congress all the right to claim Thrikkakara is its fortress. The CPM claims it would breach the fortress this time.

Congress sources said its candidate Uma Thomas, widow of P T Thomas, would win the bypoll comfortably. The party believes that Uma would win by a margin higher than what her husband garnered. P T Thomas was elected with a margin of 14,329 votes in 2021.

Listing the reasons behind the calculation, a top Congress leader told Onmanorama: “We believe that all those who voted for Thomas would vote for Uma also. We don't see any reason for them to think otherwise.”

The leader also said Uma was likely to get a major share of the votes that went to the Twenty20 party last time. The Kitex-backed Twenty20 had polled 10 per cent of votes in Thrikkakara in 2021. This time, the party chose to stay away from the fray, triggering speculations over where would its votes go.

Congress sources also said the party was hopeful of a shift from the votes BJP scored last time.

“A good number of Hindu votes, especially of women, which had gone to BJP last time, would have come to us this time. It was evident from the warm reception accorded to our candidate in areas like Poonithura,” a Congress leader said.

He pegged the likely margin of Uma Thomas between 15,000 and 20,000.

CPM's expectations

The CPM, which orchestrated a dynamic campaign led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan hoping to raise the LDF's tally to 100 out of 140 seats in the assembly, claimed its candidate Dr Jo Joseph will win by a margin of 2,500-odd votes.

“We can't hope to win by a huge margin in a constituency like Thrikkakara where we have been behind the UDF by some 14,000 votes till last poll,” a district leader of the CPM. who was active in the campaign, told Onmanorama.

Both the CPM and the Congress attributed the dip in the polling percentage to same reasons. Sources in these parties said over 16,000 people in the voters' list were not in the constituency on polling day. The names of those who were dead were also not removed from the list, they claimed.

A section of voters who stood with the Twenty20 in 2021 in protest against the traditional political parties might have stayed away from voting this time, they say.

The BJP, which fielded its vice president and senior leader A N Radhakarishnan, has not made any tall claims after the polling.

The party, which was a distant third in the previous polls, ran a lukewarm campaign compared to its rivals this time.

The maximum the party can hope for is to raise its vote share from the 11.34 per cent it polled in 2021. A key election strategy of the saffron party in Thrikkakara was to woo a section of Christian voters to its side.

Its campaign, flaunting P C George who has been booked for anti-Muslim speech, showed the party's desperation to make inroads into the Christian votes.

BJP state president K Surendran on Wednesday said a dip in the polling percentage reflected the people's aversion to both the LDF and UDF.

The votes will be counted on June 3, Friday. Till then all the contenders can do the math again and again to suit their convenience.