Palakkad: The forecast of various weather agencies and experts in the field points to the dismal scenario that the monsoon rainfall in Kerala will continue to be lesser during the rest of June.
The weather agencies have not yet given any indication of monsoon getting stronger in the coming days. Like the last three years in June, there has been a great dip in the volume of rain this time too.
The factors that usually favour a good monsoon are currently missing in the atmosphere. But the experts are not ruling out chances of heavy rain in July and August.
The problem is that though there are clouds above the sea, there is no occurrence of strong winds that can result in rain.
But the lesser rain in June - the month on which Makayiram and Thiruvathira 'Njattuvelas' fall on - is set to adversely affect the agriculture output, especially in the areas that are heavily dependent on monsoon.
Though a low pressure formation had occurred in the northern side of Kerala, it was weakened within a day after it emergence.
Rajeevan Erikulam, weather expert at the State Disaster Management Authority, said that the declining trend in monsoon has been occurring for the last two decades.
As per the usual standards, the State has to get 643 millimeter rain each time in June.
But during 13 times, the State did not hit this target during 2020-21. During the 2018 floods, the rain measured was 750 mm. Though the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) claimed that monsoon season had begun last month, the current weather proves otherwise.
Scientist at the Radar Research Institute of the CUSAT, Dr.MG Manoj, said that there might be chances of heavy rain in Assam and Tripura since monsoon winds moved past the Kanyakumari coast via Lakshadweep without touching the Kerala coast. It is estimated that Assam would be the worst-hit due to this scenario.
RAIN RECEIVED DURING JUNE SINCE 2018 (IN MM)
2019 - 175.4
2020 - 230
2021 - 161.1
2022 - 109.7 (received till now)