Thiruvananthapuram: Kerala has recorded a 66% deficiency in the southwest monsoon rainfall till June 24. In meteorological terms, this is called "large deficient", where the rainfall shortage is between 60 to 99 per cent.
In fact, the southwest monsoon in nine of the 14 districts in Kerala is "large deficient".
Waynad is the worst affected with 81 per cent deficiency. The other districts that suffer "large" deficiency in monsoon are: Kannur (69%), Idukki (73%), Kasaragod (74%), Kottayam 964%), Kozhikode (75%), Malappuram (69%), Palakkad (71%), and Thrissur (64%).
The least affected is Pathanamthitta district, but even here the deficiency is 36 per cent.
Except on June 8, not once in the last 24 days has the rainfall intensity touched the normal level. On June 8, rainfall of nearly 21 millimetres was recorded. On other days, it was far below the average set by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for the 50 years from 1971 to 2020.
In the last seven days the gap between the actual rainfall and the normal is strikingly wide. The rainfall has to touch or cross the normal/average level for at least three consecutive days for monsoon to be called active. The Biparjoy cyclonic formation over the Arabian sea, northwest of the southern peninsula, seems to have drawn away the monsoon-laden southwesterly winds. The weakening along Kerala was more than what was predicted by meteorologists.
However, the formation of a low-pressure area on the northern side of the OdishaBengal coast in the northwestern region of the Bay of Bengal could revive the monsoon season. It is said that the low pressure on the Bay of Bengal side could draw back the southwesterly to the Kerala coast.
Meteorolgists say that the monsoon would be revived during the fag end of June.
Meanwhile, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast widespread thundershowers across Kerala over the next five days. IMD has also issued a warning on isolated very heavy rainfall till June 28.
Winds having a speed of 30-40 kmph are also expected in the state. Following the IMD warning, a yellow alert has been declared in various districts till June 27.
Yellow alert
The yellow alert will be in force in the following districts on these days:
June 25: Alappuzha, Ernakulam, Thrissur and Kozhikode.
June 26: Ernakulam and Kannur.
June 27: Alappuzha, Kottayam, Ernakulam, Idukki, Thrissur, Palakkad and Malappuram.
Meanwhile, the Kerala State Disaster Management Authority said that even though only a yellow alert has been declared in Idukki on June 27, very heavy rainfall of up to 204.4 mm – which is equivalent to an orange alert - could be expected in the district.
Fishing banned
In another warning, IMD said that bad weather and winds having speeds of 40-45 kmph and at some occasions 50 kmph could be expected till June 28 on the Kerala-Karnataka coast and till June 27 in Lakshadweep.
Similarly, winds of up to 65 kmph could be experienced till June 28 in the Gulf of Mannar, south Tamil Nadu coast, Kanyakumari coast, north Andhra Pradesh coast, the adjacent mid-western region of the Bay of Bengal, western region of Bay of Bengal off Sri Lankan coast and the mid-southeastern area of Bay of Bengal.
The authorities have banned fishing activities in all these areas on the days of the warning.
Monsoon covers Delhi, Mumbai together
In a rare event, the monsoon on Sunday covered both Delhi and Mumbai together.
While it hit the national capital two days earlier than schedule, its entry into the financial capital is two weeks late, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
"The Southwest Monsoon has advanced over Mumbai and Delhi today (June 25)," an IMD official said.
The monsoon, which had a slow start, has now made swift progress, covering numerous regions, including some parts of Maharashtra, entire Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, northeast India, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, east Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, most parts of Himachal Pradesh, and some parts of Haryana, according to an IMD official.
Normally, the rain-bearing system reaches Kerala by June 1, Mumbai by June 11, and the national capital by June 27.
Although the monsoon has covered a significant portion of north India, including Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and a large part of Jammu and Kashmir, on schedule or slightly ahead, it is currently running 10-12 days behind schedule for a considerable part of central India, where a significant number of farmers heavily rely on it.
D S Pai, a senior scientist at the IMD, explained that Cyclone Biparjoy had impacted the monsoon's progress over southern India and the adjoining western and central parts of the country.
He said, "Since the system absorbed most of the moisture, the monsoon's progress along the west coast was slow."
However, the Bay of Bengal branch of the monsoon, responsible for bringing rains to northeast and east India, remained stronger between June 11 and June 23.
Pai attributed this to a low-pressure system that formed over the Bay of Bengal in mid-June and the remnants of cyclone Biparjoy, which aided the monsoon's advancement over east India.
Pai noted that the Arabian Sea branch of the monsoon is now gaining strength with a low-pressure system developing over the Bay of Bengal.
"The monsoon may cover entire Maharashtra and some parts of Gujarat and Rajasthan on Sunday," added the senior meteorologist.
He said that it represents a new pulse of the monsoon, and rapid progress is expected.
(With PTI inputs)
