The Congress-led UDF in Kerala is likely to maintain its lead in the Lok Sabha elections slated for 2024, according to an opinion poll conducted by Manorama News in association with Mumbai-based Voters' Mood Research Agency.
The survey found UDF dominating in 17 seats, while the LDF has an upper hand in the remaining three segments.
In the 2019 Parliament election, the UDF almost had a clean sweep, winning 19 out of the 20 Lok Sabha seats in Kerala. The LDF had to be satisfied with one seat, Alappuzha, where AM Ariff of the CPM won.
The survey result
Parliament election results
UDF: 17
Clear majority: Kasaragod, Wayanad, Kozhikode, Malappuram, Ponnanni, Chalakkudy, Ernakulam, Idukki, Kottayam, Alappuzha, Kollam and Thiruvananthapuram.
An edge over LDF despite tight contest: Kannur, Alathur, Thrissur, Pathanamthitta, and Attingal.
LDF: 3
Clear majority: Mavelikkara.
An edge over UDF despite tight contest: Vadakara and Palakkad.
If the results in segments that may witness a tight contest swing in favour of the other Front, UDF may get 12 to 19 seats, while the LDF would bag one to eight seats.
Vote share (% share in 2019 in brackets)
UDF: 43.78% (47.22)
LDF: 37.47% (35.73)
NDA: 15.50% (15.57)
Others: 3.25% (1.48)
Rahul popular leader, Pinarayi the Chief Minister (in %)
Popular leader
Rahul Gandhi: 47.57%
Narendra Modi: 19.05%
Pinarayi Vijayan: 11.48%
Shashi Tharoor: 7.81%
Performance of the Modi government
Very good: 9.98%
Good: 17.17%
Average: 30.24%
Bad: 28.07%
Very bad: 14.54%
Performance of the national Opposition alliance
Very good: 21.01%
Good: 33.95%
Average: 25.21%
Bad: 15.79%
Very bad: 4.04%
Performance of Kerala MPs
Very good: 19.42%
Good: 37.82%
Average: 23.96%
Bad: 16.43%
Very bad: 2.37%
Is the Uniform Civil Code good for India?
Yes: 33.43%
No: 37.63%
Can't say: 28.94%
Performance of Pinarayi government
Very good: 18.95%
Good: 33.23%
Average: 29.05%
Bad: 14.28%
Very bad: 4.49%
Performance of the Opposition in Kerala
Very good: 17.94%
Good: 33.06%
Average: 27.04%
Bad: 18.72%
Very bad: 2.94%
Did the Bharat Jodo Yatra benefit the Congress?
Yes: 64.34%
No: 23.06%
Can't say: 12.06%
Who should be the Chief Minister
Pinarayi Vijayan: 27.5%
Shashi Tharoor: 14.45%
KK Shailaja: 14.37%
VD Satheesan: 8.75%
(As many as 28,000 voters participated in the survey. The result is based on interviews with 200 voters each in Kerala's 140 Assembly constituencies).
