New Delhi: The southwest monsoon is expected to reach Kerala within the next four to five days, marking an early onset well ahead of the usual June 1 date, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday. The IMD had earlier predicted that the monsoon would make landfall in Kerala by May 27. If the current forecast holds, this would be the earliest onset over the Indian mainland since 2009, when the monsoon arrived on May 23.

“Conditions are likely to become favourable for monsoon onset over Kerala during the next four to five days,” the IMD said in its afternoon update.
Typically, the southwest monsoon hits Kerala by June 1 and covers the entire country by July 8. It begins its withdrawal from northwest India around September 17 and fully retreats by October 15.

In recent years, the monsoon has reached Kerala on May 30 (2023), June 8 (2022), May 29 (2021), June 3 (2020), June 1 (2019), June 8 (2018), and May 29 (2017).
In its seasonal outlook released in April, the IMD had forecast above-normal cumulative rainfall for the 2025 monsoon season and ruled out the development of El Niño conditions, which are typically associated with suppressed rainfall over India.

According to IMD standards, rainfall between 96 and 104 per cent of the 50-year average of 87 cm is classified as ‘normal’. Rainfall below 90 per cent is considered ‘deficient’; between 90 and 95 per cent is ‘below normal’; between 105 and 110 per cent is ‘above normal’; and anything over 110 per cent is categorised as ‘excess’.

The monsoon plays a vital role in India's economy, particularly in agriculture, which supports around 42.3 per cent of the population and contributes 18.2 per cent to the country’s GDP. It is also crucial for replenishing reservoirs used for drinking water and power generation across the country.