Thiruvananthapuram: Kerala has received 3 per cent less rainfall than normal so far this June, but the past week saw a sharp spike with 60 per cent excess rainfall, according to the latest data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

Between June 1 and 18, Kerala and Mahe recorded 360 mm of cumulative rainfall against the normal of 370 mm. Lakshadweep, however, reported a sharper deficit of 25 per cent, receiving only 164.5 mm compared to the seasonal normal of 218.1 mm. Among Kerala's 14 districts, rainfall was broadly within seasonal norms: one district received excess rainfall, eleven saw normal rainfall, and two were in the deficient category. Mahe reported normal rainfall, while Lakshadweep remained significantly below average.

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The trend shifted dramatically during the week of June 12 to 18. Kerala and Mahe recorded 269.4 mm of rainfall during this period, far above the normal of 168.2 mm, marking a 60 per cent increase. Nine districts received large excess rainfall, four districts registered excess rainfall, and only one district saw rainfall within the normal range.

The variation in rainfall is being driven by complex atmospheric and oceanic factors. According to the IMD, neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions currently prevail over the equatorial Pacific, although atmospheric circulation is exhibiting patterns typically associated with La Niña. These neutral ENSO conditions are expected to persist throughout the monsoon season. Meanwhile, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are being observed over the Indian Ocean and are also forecast to continue in the coming months.The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), which influences monsoon activity by modulating tropical convection, is currently in phase 3 with an amplitude of less than 1. These conditions suggest continued variability in rainfall, with periods of intense precipitation interspersed with more subdued phases.

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Forecast for next week
Next week's rainfall will be influenced by a well-marked low-pressure area currently over northeast Jharkhand and adjoining Gangetic West Bengal, which is expected to weaken gradually. An offshore trough extending from the north Konkan coast to the north Kerala coast is also contributing to the rainfall.

According to the IMD forecast, Kerala is likely to receive widespread light to moderate rainfall with isolated heavy showers on June 19, 22, 23, 24, and 25. On June 20 and 21, fairly widespread light to moderate rain is expected. Additionally, strong surface winds reaching speeds of 40–50 kmph are likely over Kerala, Mahe, and Lakshadweep on June 19. The overall rainfall during the week of June 19 to 25 is expected to remain slightly below normal across Kerala, Mahe, and Lakshadweep. For the following week, from June 26 to July 2, Kerala and Mahe are expected to receive normal to below normal rainfall.

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The IMD has advised the public and authorities to remain alert to the possibility of heavy rainfall events and associated impacts such as waterlogging, landslides, and disruptions to transport and agriculture.



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