Thiruvananthapuram: Kerala experienced a 1% rainfall surplus in June, with cumulative monsoon rainfall between June 1 and 27 measuring 582.9 mm against a normal of 577.8, according to data from the India Meteorological Department's (IMD). 

Meanwhile, the extended range forecast published by the IMD said that Kerala and Mahe experienced a deficit of 21% in the last week (June 19 to June 25) with a rainfall of 162.5 mm  against a normal of 1622.5 mm. While six districts received normal rainfall, eight districts recorded deficient rainfall in the past week. Rainfall across Lakshadweep was also below par, with a 37% deficit.

The outlook for the coming fortnight paints a mixed picture. Despite heavy rain alerts issued for the last week of June, the IMD forecasts cumulatively below-normal rainfall over Kerala and Mahe for both weeks ending July 9. The trend is attributed to large-scale climate patterns, including the neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and a developing weak negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) --both of which influence monsoon intensity over India.

Strong surface winds of 50–60 kmph have been forecast across Kerala, Mahe, and Lakshadweep, particularly on June 26 and 27, as a low-pressure system moves west-northwestward from the Bay of Bengal across eastern India.

Another low-pressure area is likely to form around June 29 over the north Bay of Bengal, with a low to moderate chance of intensifying into a depression by July 1, the IMD said. Despite this, the agency does not expect any cyclonic systems to develop over the North Indian Ocean, which will keep monsoon activity limited.