Analysis | Why last session of Kerala Assembly will benefit ruling LDF than UDF
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After the 'surprise' losses in the local body polls, the CPM-led Left Democratic Front in Kerala has been trying out both traditional and inventive ways to claw back into the minds of the electorate and prettify its side of the story.
On one side there are full and half-page ads that proclaim LDF's government's achievements and carry the solitary picture of a happy-looking Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan just the way the image of owners are featured in the ads of local consumer good brands. And on the other are house visits, quiz competitions and zonal-level public marches led by LDF leaders.
And from January 20 on, the LDF will take their sales pitch to democracy's most hallowed stage: the Legislative Assembly. The 16th and the final session of the 15th Kerala Assembly will begin on January 20 with the Governor's Address. The 32-day session will extend till March 26 if the Assembly elections are not notified in between.
Governor's surprise
The initial political blitz could be launched through the Governor himself, the LDF government can make Rajendra Arlekar, a staunch RSS man, to deliver strongly-worded observations against the BJP-led centre.
But if Arlekar, like his predecessor Arif Mohammad Khan, is unwilling to play ball, the LDF's first sortie could be neutralised. Like last year, the government, perhaps giving in to Arlekar's stern persuasion, could tone down its condemnation of the Centre. Being an election year, it looks unlikely.
Sneak peek into Mahabali's world
Even if the Governor refuses to go by the script, the 16th Session seems designed for the government to make its case as elaborately as it can before voters. On January 29 is the presentation of the full Kerala Budget, a 'two to three'-hour stretch the government could convert into an extended trailer of the welfare and development possibilities that an LDF government could throw open if it is voted to power for a third consecutive time.
Nonetheless, the subsequent discussions on the Budget proposals will be less about finance and more about competitive secularism. During the time set apart for discussions, the LDF and the UDF benches could battle it out to claim Kerala's secular space. 'Soft Hindutva' will be the football each side would be impatient to get back into the goal post of the other side. Unfortunately for the UDF, the ruling side always gets more time in Assembly discussions.
Satheesan de-weaponised
Till now, an 'adjournment motion' was the only legislative tool that seemed to favour the opposition. It is a motion moved by an opposition MLA to put on hold all Assembly proceedings of the day to discuss a matter of great public interest, like police brutality, price rise, or human-animal conflict, that the Opposition claims is incompetently handled by the government.
Normally, governments reject these motions, which is a way of saying that these charges are just politically motivated and, therefore, irrelevant. The thinking was, to allow an adjournment motion was to accept that the issue was indeed serious.
However, before the motion is rejected, the opposition leader is given the last word in the form of a walkout speech. Particularly during the 15th Assembly, it was found that an opposition leader like V D Satheesan, who did his homework and had the language and passion to match his knowledge, knocked out the ruling party with his walkout speeches.
The LDF government quickly flipped its floor strategy. It snatched away Satheesan's most potent weapon. Each time an adjournment motion is moved, which is virtually every day, the government agreed to a debate. This way, the Chief Minister or the concerned minister gets the right to deliver the last word.
If the opposition UDF moves an adjournment motion this last session, on say the Sabarimala issue or any other topic that could potentially harm the government, the government will unhesitatingly, even gleefully, agree to suspend all proceedings of the day and debate. Whatever the opposition says can be countered. The ruling side can use its army of officials to gather as much contrary evidence to go on a counterattack without fearing a UDF rebuttal.
Chaos theory
The only option left for the UDF is to somehow disrupt daily proceedings, sabotage the free broadcast of the ruling side's campaign points and use the chaos to sneak in its political messages through the media.
On top of all this is the possibility of the Privileges and Ethics Committee probing the sexual misconduct of Palakkad MLA Rahul Mamkoottathil and the subsequent debate in the House on his expulsion based on the Committee's recommendation. This debate will not limit itself to the ethical behaviour of just one MLA and could seriously threaten the decorum and dignity of the House.
