The run-up to the Kerala Assembly elections 2026 was marked by sudden switches, severing of ties and open revolts against the CPM. The fractures and forging of new alliances threw open an array of hot seats across Kerala.

Onmanorama tracked 12 such seats throughout the campaign and assessed winnability quotient, gauged undercurrents and other factors to predict the winners. Onmanorama poll meter rankings were backed by insights from the ground and sharp political perspectives. When the results came out on May 4, Onmanorama was spot on in 10 out of 12 seats. Here is how the voters' verdict panned out in hot seats.

Manjeshwar
The fight looked close given the history of the constituency with narrow margins. The poll meter swayed in favour of UDF candidate AKM Ashraf. There was an addendum; this time he may break free from the close margins of recent years.

Result: AKM Ashraf won with a majority of 96948 votes, a far-cry from 745 majority in 2021.

Ambalapuzha
Here, the contest was as mercurial as G Sudhakaran's temper. The CPM marshalled the best of its organisational might to show Sudhakaran his place. Onmanorama poll meter foresaw Sudhakaran handing CPM its worst defeat in the 2026 elections in this seat.

Result: G Sudhakaran,who contested as UDF independent, trounced CPM's H Salam by a majority of 27935 votes. For the CPM, which did everything to discredit Sudhakaran, the wounds will hurt for years.

Thripunithura
Congress veteran K Babu's declaration of abstaining from electoral politics placed him as the tactician for UDF's Deepak Joy. NDA tested waters partnering with Twenty20, triggering a flow of neutral voters to the UDF. Onmanorama poll meter saw a clear edge for Deepak Joy.

Result: UDF candidate Deepak Joy retained the seat for Congress with a majority of 18468 votes.

Pala
Onmanorama sensed an evident air of anti-incumbency and governance fatigue during field-level assessments in Pala. Jose K Mani also seemed to face the ire of the grassroots CPM workers. The UDF pitched the campaign based on change. The poll meter scale tilted towards Mani C Kappen.

Result: Mani C Kappen won with a majority of 2991 votes. For the Kerala Congress (M), the results were forgettable. It drew a blank in all the 12 seats it had contested.

Taliparamba
A battle against nepotism unfolded here. The CPM's broad network was expected to provide the safety net for the party secretary's wife, P K Shyamala. Such was the clout of the CPM here that the poll meter backed Shyamala.

Result: CPM rebel T K Govindan Master won the elections with a majority of 12551 votes.

Payyanur
CPM whistleblower V Kunhikrishnan's revelations about fund fraud stirred up quite an upheaval. The CPM kept saying he was peddling lies. The poll meter conclusion was that even with the backing of the UDF, Kunhikrishnan may not have the numbers to beat Madhusoodanan, the CPM candidate.

Result: Driven by strong undercurrents, Kunhikrishnan gave a rude shock to the CPM with a majority of 7487 votes.

Peravoor
When former Health Minister K K Shailaja was asked to vacate Mattannur and move to Peravoor, it sparked skepticism all over. The CPM's narrative centred around a ploy to win back the seat. The former Health Minister put up a good fight, but the poll meter was in favour of UDF candidate Sunny Joseph.

Result: Sunny Joseph retained the seat with a majority of 14453 votes.

Nattika
Sitting MLA C C Mukundhan's surprise switch to the BJP camp rattled the CPM. His aura of goodwill was neutralised by the LDF's cadre strength and organisational prowess. The poll meter's clear choice was CPI candidate Geetha Gopi.

Result: Geetha Gopi made it home with a majority of 7093 votes.

Nemom
BJP had to reopen the account at any cost in Nemom. The groundwork began way early. The CPM remained oblivious. The poll meter tipped the advantage for BJP candidate Rajeev Chandrasekhar.

Result: Rajeev Chandrasekhar defeated Minister V Sivankutty by a majority of 4978 votes.

Palakkad
BJP badly wanted to turn things around in Palakkad. Sobha Surendran, the vote-collector, seemed the ideal choice. The Congress pushed the CPM into a corner over the CPM-BJP deal allegations in Palakkad. The poll meter went for Ramesh Pisharody sensing a clear edge.

Result: Ramesh Pisharody won the Palakkad seat with a majority of 13147 votes.

Kottarakkara
Finance Minister K N Balagopal went into the elections with good performance ratings. He was up against Aisha Potty, who had quit the CPM and moved to the Congress. The voters had nothing against her, making it an even contest. The poll meter relied on factors like Balagopal's performance as minister, anti-defection sentiment against Potty to put him at an advantage.

Result: K N Balagopal won by a narrow margin of 1012 votes.

Kunnathunad
The Twenty20-BJP alliance didn't go down well with the voters. UDF candidate VP Sajeendran banked on the consolidation of secular votes. Sitting MLA Sreenijin pitched development in his campaign. The poll meter positioned Sajeendran to turn the tide in his favour.

Result: V P Sajeendran won with a majority of 21283 votes.