Thiruvananthapuram: A major mismatch between its projected and actual power demand in October has forced the Kerala State Electricity Board (KSEB) to revisit its estimates and submit a revised report factoring in additional power availability flagged by the regulatory commission.

The board had projected daily consumption to peak at 9.34 crore units in October, but actual demand climbed to 10.154 crore units. In contrast, peak-hour demand between 6 pm and 10.30 pm reached only 5,303MW against the projected 5,409MW. This mismatch in estimates also raised questions about the reliability of the board's monthly demand forecasts.

The projections were drawn up anticipating a sharp rise in consumption in the months following the introduction of load-shedding in September. However, the State Electricity Regulatory Commission found that actual demand on several days in October was 300MW to 700MW below KSEB's estimates.

The board's projection report submitted to the regulatory commission last month had put power demand from November 2026 to May 2027 significantly higher than in the corresponding months of the previous year. The estimated increases were as follows:

The regulatory commission, however, faulted the KSEB for failing to account for additional power that would become available from January, among other supply-side possibilities. It also rejected the board's proposals to enter into power purchase agreements that would involve procuring electricity at high rates.

The KSEB had cited similar demand projections in a recommendation to the government to explore power purchases from Himachal Pradesh. However, after the proposal triggered controversy, the board submitted a revised report incorporating the additional power availability flagged by the regulatory commission.

Additional power supply options
Maharashtra: The KSEB expects to receive 270MW from the Sinnar thermal power project in January and February 2027. Another 270MW is expected to become available from March, taking the total to 540MW.

Uttar Pradesh: Under a banking arrangement, the state can draw 600MW from March 1 to April 15 and return the power between June and September.

Punjab: A similar arrangement will allow the KSEB to draw 200MW during the day and 400MW at night from March 1 to April 15. However, the available quantum could be reduced to 100MW during the day and 200MW at night.

The KSEB is also exploring banking arrangements with Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar. These efforts are being made in anticipation of normal rainfall next year.