The recent killing of Indian photographer Danish Siddiqui in Afghanistan has riveted the attention of the average Indian beyond the borders to a steaming issue in the heartland of Asia – the rise of Taliban.
Reuters news agency's Pulitzer Prize winning photographer Danish was documenting the clash between Afghan security forces and Taliban forces in Spin Buldak, Kandahar, near Pakistan border when he was shot.
The withdrawal of US troops from Bagram Airfield in Afghanistan two decades after it intervened in Afghan issue has unleashed a power hungry Taliban in the Afghan countryside and they are slowly making inroads into its urban centres. If the offensive continues at the current rate, it is a matter of only months before Kabul falls at Taliban's feet.
News agencies reported that despite US's decision to withdraw from Afghanistan, it had carried out air strikes on July 23 to support Afghan government forces who have been under pressure from the Taliban as US-led foreign forces carry out the final stages of their withdrawal from the country.
Taliban's triumph over Afghan army
The US decision to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan after an agreement with Taliban which is known for flouting every deal clarifies one aspect – the country with the Joe Biden administration at helm will not wage another war wasting its resources for anyone. This has left the Afghanistan army to fend for itself. The Afghan forces are equipped just like a paramilitary force only.
“Complete Taliban takeover is possible in Afghanistan,” a US army official admitted immediately after the withdrawal of troops.
International media has reported that the Afghan army surrendered with relative ease to the Taliban forces with videos surfacing of hundreds of soldiers fleeing the border after handing over their weapons and equipment. Militants are also targeting the limited Afghan air force and assassinating pilots.
The issue is deeper than that. The Wall Street Journal reported that deep rooted corruption of President Hamid Karzai's administration is not helping matters. Injured soldiers are dying of simple infections at Afghan hospitals funded by US as corrupt doctors and nurses demanded bribes for treatment and even food.
Pakistan's gain and the Chinese influence
It is ironic that while world powers including the United States pumped money and resources into the Afghan economy to strengthen the Afghan security forces, the Taliban, which was left to fend for itself, emerged stronger from the shadows of Pakistan.
The strategic and location advantage notwithstanding, this implies that the support of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) is what keeps the Taliban machinery well-oiled. A majority of the foot soldiers of Taliban hail from Pakistan.
Meanwhile, experts are still ascertaining what China's role will be in Afghanistan's regime shift. The rise of Taliban will halt many of China's expansion plans in the region and beyond including the Xi Jinping's trillion dollar project – the Belt and Road initiative. Since China harbours close ties with Pakistan, it could play a seminal role in checking Taliban's growth from the source.
Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi has already hinted at their preference for a stable government in Afghanistan as opposed to Taliban.
Though its investments in Afghan soil is unlikely to suffer due to the country's relation with Pakistan and Taliban's eagerness to please China, the country will be cautious while spending in the region henceforth.
Afghanistan could offer huge geo-political advantage to China. It offers a path for the Chinese military access to the Arabian Sea, via Iran or Pakistan. It could also provide access to Iran and the Middle East, and a route to the Indian Ocean and on to Africa.
India's waning influence
Afghanistan can be counted as one of India's biggest diplomatic failures in recent times. The country's failure stemmed from the fact that it pumped in funds close to $1 billion in Afghanistan emboldened by the US presence in the region.
It failed to predict that Afghanistan will hit the reset button to return to the Taliban era after the withdrawal of US troops and failed to modify its foreign policies in tandem with the geo-political dynamics.
Among the Afghan's neighbours, India is the only nation with regional relevance left out of negotiations. Even Russia has chosen Pakistan over India in its plans for the region, perhaps due to its geographical advantage and political ties. Russia’s Greater Eurasian Partnership (GEP) vision, and the new quadrilateral framework that the US has established between itself, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Uzbekistan was recently unveiled.
While Taliban guarantees protection for Chinese investments in Afghanistan, it is unlikely to do the same for the Indian investments raging from schools, hospitals, parliament and other infrastructure.
India’s largest infrastructure project is the road link to the Kandahar-Herat highway between Delaram (Herat Province) and Zaranj (Nimroz Province) on the Iranian border (280 km/$80million), which should facilitate trade flows between Afghanistan and India and the Gulf region. Even more ambitious is the Indian-financed “Salma” dam project in Herat Province, which will have a capacity of 42MW.
The China-Pak ties in Afghanistan is also likely to adversely affect India's Kashmir strategy as it could provide a safe haven to Kashmir militants. India will need to broker negotiations at Kabul to stabilise the Afghan government and simultaneously engage in talks with the Taliban.
Constant shadow over Kabul
Afghanistan is destined to a fate in the hands of colonisers and marauders, one might say. From 1839 when the British crown replaced Afghan monarch Dost Mohammed with its friend Shah Shuja, the country has witnessed a series of foreign interventions.
In 1978, the Soviets were deep into Afghan politics when they toppled President Mohammed Daoud Khan and helped install People's Democratic Party of Afghanistan's Nur Muhammad Taraki as leader. The reforms brought about by Taraki's government including land distribution laws caused discontent across Afghanistan promoting dissidents including the Pashtun group in North West Frontier province of Pakistan, emerging into the Taliban almost two decades later.
The Soviet intervention continued in Afghanistan through coups and invasions till the disintegration of USSR in 1990. Soon after in 1992, the Communist regime under Mohammad Najibullah collapsed leading to a power struggle between the various Mujahideen faction until Taliban emerged victorious in 1994.
If Taliban is a force to reckon with today, America has only itself to blame. The proxy war against the Afghan government supported by the Soviet Union began at the covert training centres in Pakistan supported by the United States in the early 1980s.
With their harsh interpretation of the Islamic Sharia law, the Taliban under the leadership of Mullah Mohammad Omar saw mounting civilian casualties, atrocities against women, cultural genocide and the infamous scorched earth tactics.
The Taliban reign survived in Afghanistan despite the anti Taliban resistance and offensives under the likes of Ahmad Shah Massoud and Abdul Rashid Dostum. Its growth was checked only in 2001, when America finally invaded the country with NATO forces in retaliation for the 9/11 attacks.
Unfortunately, the withdrawal of the US troops implies that Afghanistan is set for a rewind to the dark ages of 1990s where civilian casualty was an everyday norm and civic liberties were distant.
Interestingly, none of the aforementioned interventions have a glorious tale to narrate. The intervening powers be it Britain, Soviet Union and now, America has left the country with little progress.
To survive and emerge stronger, the Afghan community will have to make its own decisions. Though it has committed to build diplomatic ties with the global community, it remains to be seen if Taliban honours their word and decide to finally 'govern' the country.
