Canadians head to the polls on Monday to elect a new government poised to confront threats of annexation from the United States and take on President Donald Trump, whose trade war has dominated the election campaign.

The Liberal Party, led by new Prime Minister Mark Carney, appeared set to lose to the Conservatives’ Pierre Poilievre, until a series of attacks from the US president sparked a dramatic shift in polling numbers.

Carney, 60, who has never held elected office, took over from Justin Trudeau as prime minister just last month. Prior to entering politics, Carney had a distinguished career as an investment banker, later serving as the central bank governor for both Canada and the UK.

Carney argues that his global financial expertise has prepared him to handle Canada’s response to Trump’s tariffs. He has also pledged to rejuvenate internal trade and reduce Canada's dependence on the US, a country Carney asserts "we can no longer trust."

“The United States under Trump wants to break us, so they can own us,” Carney warned repeatedly during the campaign. “We don’t need chaos, we need calm. We don’t need anger, we need an adult,” he said in his final campaign pitch.

Poilievre, 45, a career politician, has sought to focus on domestic issues that led to Trudeau’s unpopularity toward the end of his time in office, including rising living costs. The Conservative leader contends that Carney would continue the policies of what he calls the “lost Liberal decade,” asserting that only a Conservative government can effectively address crime, housing shortages, and other national concerns.

“You cannot handle another four years of this,” Poilievre said during a weekend rally.

While Poilievre has criticized Trump, he has argued that ten years of Liberal governance have left Canada vulnerable to a newly hostile United States.

'A good pick'
Final polls suggest a tight race, but Carney is still seen as the favourite to win. Surveys also indicate that voters view the former central banker as the best candidate to manage relations with Trump.

Jeff Sims, a 46-year-old Quebec resident near Ottawa, believes Carney has the right qualifications for the job. “Two central banks under his belt, I think that’s a good pick,” Sims told AFP on Sunday.

At a Conservative rally in Oakville, Ontario, Janice Wyner, 70, rejected the idea that Carney marks a departure from Trudeau. “Trudeau’s policies stunk and it’s the same party,” Wyner said. “Canada is just in a mess. I’m worried for my grandkids.”

For many voters like Nadine Sokol, a 41-year-old from near Ottawa, the primary issue remains "the threat coming from the US."

Historic turnaround
If the Liberals win, it would represent one of the most dramatic turnarounds in Canadian political history. Just a few months ago, in early January, the Conservatives were leading by more than 20 points in most polls, and Poilievre was poised to become Canada's next prime minister.

However, Carney’s ascension and growing public unease about Trump have changed the race.

Public broadcaster CBC’s poll aggregator on Sunday put the Liberals at 42.8 percent support, with the Conservatives at 38.8 percent. As with U.S. elections, national polling numbers may not always translate to actual results.

The performance of two smaller parties, the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) and the separatist Bloc Quebecois, will also play a key role. In past elections, strong NDP performances in Ontario and British Columbia, as well as a strong showing by the Bloc in Quebec, have hindered the Liberals' seat count. Polls indicate that these smaller parties might face setbacks this time.

Nearly 29 million of Canada’s 41 million people are eligible to vote, with a record 7.3 million casting advance ballots. Polls open at 8.30 am local time in Newfoundland and Labrador, the easternmost province.

Canadians will elect 343 members of parliament, with 172 seats required for a majority. The Liberals won a majority in 2015 but have governed with a minority since 2019.