Gukesh needs a favour from a fellow Indian to upset Carlsen in his own backyard

World Champion D Gukesh could win Norway Chess on Friday by toppling World No. 1 Magnus Carlsen, but he will need a huge favour from his compatriot Arjun Erigaisi.

After the penultimate round in Stavanger late on Thursday, Gukesh was second in the points table with 14.5 points, just half a point behind leader Carlsen (15).

Gukesh defeated Wei Yi, while Carlsen got the better of Fabiano Caruana in their penultimate round games. Erigaisi drew with Hikaru Nakamura but lost in the Armageddon tie-breaker.

In the final round, Gukesh and Carlsen play black pieces against Caruana and Erigaisi respectively. Should Gukesh win and Carlsen lose, the young Indian will achieve the unique distinction of finishing first in the Norwegian superstar's backyard.

Having lost his first classical game to Gukesh recently, it will be a huge setback for Carlsen if he surrenders his home title to the Indian teenager. Carlsen has won the most titles in Norway Chess (6), including five in the last six years.

There is at least one other scenario in which Gukesh could outscore Carlsen. As per Norway Chess rules, a win counts for three points, while a draw equals one point. But in the event of a draw, the players contest an armageddon play-off, and the winner of that game gets 1.5 points.

So, if the two games end in draws, Gukesh and Carlsen could end up level on points if the World Champion wins his armageddon and Erigaisi upsets the Norwegian in their tie-breaker. But the story won't end there because if two players finish level on points at the top, a play-off match involving two blitz games will decide the winner. Imagine Gukesh and Carlsen facing off in a mini-match for the title, that should excite fans.

However, two other players could capitalise should Gukesh and Carlsen lose their classical games. Nakamura has 13 points going into his final game against Wei Yi, and a win will get him to 16. Caruana, on 12.5 points, could finish as high as 15.5 with a win over Gukesh.

In the women's category, India's Koneru Humpy (13.5) was displaced from the top spot by Anna Muzychuk (15.5) after contrasting results in their penultimate round games. Humpy lost to Lei Tingjie, while Muzychuk upset World Champion Ju Wenjun.