Hours before Oscars 2026, Best Actor race faces dramatic shake-up

As Hollywood prepares for the 98th Academy Awards, the final hours before the ceremony have brought an unexpected twist to the awards race. Industry predictions and betting markets, which had remained relatively stable for weeks, have begun shifting rapidly, particularly in the Best Actor category.

For much of the awards season, Timothee Chalamet had been widely viewed as the frontrunner for Best Actor for his performance in Marty Supreme. The role had already earned him several major precursor honours earlier in the season, strengthening expectations that he could secure the Oscar.

However, the narrative surrounding the category has changed in the days leading up to the ceremony. A controversy linked to remarks attributed to Chalamet about ballet and opera sparked criticism online and among members of the arts community. The backlash quickly gained traction on social media and entertainment circles, introducing uncertainty into what had previously been seen as a relatively secure race.

The controversy appears to have coincided with noticeable changes in prediction markets. Chalamet’s odds, which had once placed him in a commanding position, reportedly dropped sharply as the discussion around the remarks intensified. Analysts tracking awards forecasts say the shift has made the Best Actor category far less predictable heading into the ceremony.

The shifting momentum has particularly benefited Michael B Jordan, whose performance in Sinners has gained increasing attention from forecasters and industry observers. In the closing days of the awards season, prediction models and betting markets have shown Jordan’s chances rising significantly, turning the category into one of the most closely watched contests of the night.

Beyond the acting race, the overall Oscars field is also dominated by a handful of major contenders. Sinners, directed by Ryan Coogler, leads the nominations tally with 16 nods, the highest for this year’s ceremony. Meanwhile, Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another has also emerged as a major competitor across several categories.

With prediction models fluctuating and the Best Actor race suddenly tightening, the final hours before the ceremony have added an element of unpredictability to the awards season. As the industry gathers for the ceremony at the Dolby Theatre, the shifting odds suggest that some of the night’s biggest results may remain uncertain until the envelopes are opened.