Opinion | No magic wand in Isaac's budget, LDF may invoke political playbook

Opinion | LDF desperately seeks a magic wand post budget

Ahead of the budget presentation, Kerala Finance Minister Thomas Isaac hinted there won't be any poll-related sweeteners.

What he meant was that this being the last full budget of the Pinarayi Vijayan government, there would be political expectations that the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and its major constituent the CPM would be counting on.

The government's term ends in the first half of next year, when assembly elections would have to be held. In other words this was an election budget.

But Isaac had little leeway to dole out sops aplenty, given the precarious condition of the state's finances.

So Isaac banked on marginal hikes in welfare pensions, allocations for Kudumbasree and infusion of funds for fixing the pathetic condition of roads.

The proposed high speed rail project will more or less remain on paper by the time the LDF gears up for polls and hence proposals in this regard would have minimal impact.

Isaac had to squeeze land as a revenue generation tool to fund the state's coffers as is evident in the budget.

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This may not necessarily be a positive in an election year given that land transactions have already been slowing post demonetization.

So how far can Rs 25 meals in 1,000 Kudumbasree hotels, welfare pensions and re-laying of roads boost electoral prospects.

There are no definite answers but at least the CPM would hope to go to town with these as the measures which would most impact the common man.

The issue is that the CPM will have to get into election mode soon for the local body polls slated later this year.

Assuming that it would be held latest by November, the breathing space afforded to kickstart all these proposals is effectively 10 months.

But then this is not about the functioning of party machinery alone. There are bureaucratic red tapes to be overcome for these proposals to take birth.

That ministers in the Pinarayi dispensation do not have much autonomy of functioning is an accepted fact even in CPM circles.

So they may not be able to put their foot down to deliver these projects is a worry.

Given the scenario, the CPM-led LDF would more or less go for a high-pitched political rhetoric in the run-up to local body and assembly polls rather than flaunting its perceived achievements.

That line of thinking is sure to gain traction in the coming days as it gives the LDF an advantage over other political formations given the CPM's ability to sway opinion with its razor sharp political machinery.

This is also an element which the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), the key opposition to the ruling dispensation, is facing.

The Congress itself is still squabbling over a jumbo KPCC committee at a time when it should have been at the forefront of protests and agitations.

It is also conceptually confused on anti-Citizenship Amendment Act protests with KPCC chief toeing a different line on whether or not to have a truck with the Left on the issue.

The organisational capabilities of the KPCC is best left undiscussed.

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The Kerala Congress (Mani), a key constituent of the UDF, is also adding to its woes as the Joseph and Jose factions slug it out on the streets.

There are internecine shadow wars being fought in Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) also, vis-a-vis the participation in the LDF-led anti CAA protests.

The state unit of the BJP is a picture of disarray, unable to even figure out who should lead the beleaguered party, which has always been at the receiving end of electoral fortunes in the state. Its only advantage is the formidable RSS machinery, but for that to function seamlessly, the saffron parent organisation will have to be almost given a free-hand in its electoral operations. That would also reflect in the choice of BJP state president.

So CPM's best bet now would be to increase the decibel levels in the themes that resonate most with a major section of Keralites, including the anti-CAA rhetoric.

The CPM itself is without the full-time services of its state secretary, but that may not necessarily be an occupational hazard, given its functional prowess.

So it is mostly over to a full-fledged political slug-fest rather than a well-thought out campaign flaunting achievements of a government in the upcoming local body and assembly elections.

More than 60 per cent of the local bodies in the state are being controlled by the LDF.

Though local body poll outcome need not be a barometer of the electoral mood in the run-up to assembly polls, any dent in the CPM-led front's fortunes will definitely cast doubts on a confused electorate as assembly polls approach.

Given the scenario, the LDF should play to its strengths of political machinery, organisational capabilities and ability to steer public opinion.

Coupled with this, it should also hope to garner some default advantage accruing from a splintered and directionless opposition camp.

Even after assuming that the LDF will get all these on a platter, the LDF still has to move heaven, earth and Mars to latch on to power.

Thomas Isaac did not have any magic wand to offer for his party and front on this count.

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