New Delhi: There is no doubt that anti-incumbency, and often outright anger with the existing ruling party, plays a big role in voter decisions that lead to final election results.
There can also be no doubt that "perceptions" about who will win the elections affects voter behaviour.
This was revealed by final results of the CVoter-ABP News opinion poll released on Monday evening. A large number of voters seemed upset and angry with their existing governments in Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand and Goa. But perceptions about who will win differed in many states.
According to the poll, the BJP led by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is set to win a second successive term with a vastly reduced majority.
According to the final tally, the BJP led alliance in UP is projected to win a majority with the number ranging from 225 to 237. The primary challenger, the SP led alliance led by former chief minister Akhilesh Yadav is projected to win between a range of 139 to 151 seats. The BSP led by Mayawati is fading to insignificance, projected to win between 13 to 21 seats. The Congress, despite a spirited campaign led by UP in charge and party General Secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra remains a marginal player, projected to win between 4 to 8 seats.
If the projections hold true, this will be the first time since 1989 that a party has managed to successfully retain power in the politically important state of Uttar Pradesh. For more than three decades, power has changed hands between the BJP, the SP and the BSP.
The AAP is set to win Punjab with a wafer-thin majority while the Congress appears to be way behind, with the Akali Dal-led alliance and the BJP-led alliance in collaboration with former Congress chief minister Captain Amarinder Singh trail behind the two leading contenders.
According to the final results of the poll, the AAP is projected to win between a range of 55 to 63 seats - the upper end of the range ensuring a majority for the party for the first time.
The Congress which recently announced the state's first Dalit Chief Minister as their CM candidate seems to be too far behind a majority with a projection of between 24 to 30 seats.
The alliance with the BSP doesn't seem to have helped the Akali Dal which ruled Punjab in alliance with the BJP between 2007 and 2017. The alliance is projected to win between 20 to 26 seats in the elections.
The BJP-led alliance is nowhere in the picture, projected to win between 3 to 11 seats.
According to the final results of the poll, the Congress is projected to win between 30 to 36 seats. Incidentally, 36 is the magic majority mark in Uttarakhand.
The BJP is projected to win between 31 to 37 seats. The Aam Aadmi Party which made a determined effort to emerge as a serious contender, trails far behind with a projected range of 2 to 4 seats. It is very difficult to hazard even a guess when such a tight finish is being projected, just as it was in 2012 when the Congress finally pipped the BJP to the post.
As surmised by analysts and political commentators who follow politics in Goa, the state is once again heading for a repeat performance of 2017 with a hung assembly in the current elections.
According to the results of the poll, the BJP is projected to win between 14 to 18 seats, well short of the majority mark of 21 seats in the Goa assembly which has 40 seats.
Far from gaining from anti incumbency after 10 years of BJP rule, the Congress is projected to win between 12 seats, 10 to 14 seats, way behind the majority mark.
The AAP had won no seats in 2017. That's set to change. It is projected to win between 4 to 8 seats. The MGP retains its identity as a regional party, projected to win between 3 to 7 seats.
The BJP and the Congress are locked in a close battle in Manipur, as they are projected to poll 36 per cent and 33 per cent votes in the upcoming Assembly elections.
The 60-member Manipur Assembly will go to the polls in two phases on February 27 and March 3.
The sample size for the survey was 2,100 across 60 Assembly seats in the state.