New Delhi: Polls are to be held for 57 Rajya Sabha seats on June 10, while by-elections for one seat each in Telangana and in Odisha will be held on May 30 and June 13 respectively, making a total of 59 contests spread across 15 states in the next month.
Out of 59, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has currently 25 seats while its allies, the Janata Dal-United had two and AIADMK three. After adding one Independent, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has at present 31 seats out of the 59. It will be very challenging for the NDA to retain these 31 seats because as per Assembly calculations, it may lose 7-9 seats this time.
On the other hand, the United Progressive Alliance's (UPA) numbers can reach 13 – Congress (8), DMK (3), and the Shiv Sena, and the Nationalist Congress Party (one each). So clearly, the UPA may have a gain of 2-4 seats this time.
As far as other parties are concerned, presently the Samajwadi Party has three, the Biju Janata Dal four, the Bahujan Samaj Party two and the Telangana Rashtra Samiti three while the YSR Congress, the Akali Dal and the Rashtriya Janata Dal have one each. Of these 15, this time, they may pick three more.
In Uttar Pradesh, polling will be held on 11. The loss will be for the Congress and the BSP, following their debacle in recent Assembly polls. At present, the BSP has two seats and Congress one, but this time, the BJP may wrest two out of these three.
With these two seats, the BJP can send seven members to Rajya Sabha while the SP may retain three seats. Both the BJP and the SP will try their best to win the remaining seat, but because of its aggressive strategy, the BJP can pick it up.
In Maharashtra, polls are to be held for six seats. Out of these, the BJP has three while the ruling Shiv Sena, NCP, and Congress combine has one each. As per the numbers, the BJP can lose one to the ruling alliance if they fight the poll unitedly, and rope in some Independent MLAs.
Out of six seats, which are going to vote in Tamil Nadu, the DMK and the AIADMK have three seats each, but this time, the ruling DMK may pick an additional seat, on account of better numbers, taking its tally to four.
Going by numbers, the NDA is going to lose one seat in Bihar. Like before, the BJP can comfortably send two members to Rajya Sabha this time too, while its ally JD-U, with lesser MLAs, can win one seat only. The RJD is set to gain one more to win two this time.
In Andhra Pradesh, polls are to be held for four seats. In a big setback, the BJP, which has three, can lose all to the ruling YSRCP because of its brute majority.
In Karnataka, where four seats are up for grabs, the BJP can send two to the Rajya Sabha while Congress can comfortably manage one seat. But for fourth seat, neither the BJP, or the Congress, or the Janata Dal-Secular have enough numbers, so only it remains to be seen who emerges triumphant.
In Rajasthan, all four seats are held by the BJP, but this time, it can lose three of these. Based on numbers of MLAs, the BJP can bag one, the ruling Congress two, but with the help of Independent candidates, it can also win the third seat too.
In Madhya Pradesh, this time too, it will be no loss, no profit situation for both the Congress and the BJP, which means the BJP will win two and the Congress one.
Out of three seats which are going to polls in Odisha on June 10, the ruling BJD is most likely to retain all three seats based on the numbers. It is also most likely to win the bypoll, necessitated by the resignation of its sitting member Subhash Chandra Singh, to be held on June 13.
The ruling TRS in Telangana is likely to retain all two seats and also win the bypoll.
In Chattisgarh, the term of one BJP and one Congress members are ending and the ruling Congress is like to win both seats.
In Punjab, term of both Congress and Akali Dal MPs are ending and the Aam Aadmi Party with its stupendous majority is likly to win both.
In Jharkhand, where polls are to be held on two seats, results can be surprising. At present, both the seats are held by the BJP, but as per the current situation, the ruling JMM-Congress-RJD alliance and the BJP can win one seat each.
In Haryana, out of two seats, the BJP and the Congress are likely to win one seat each. In Uttarakhand, the sole seat is to be won by the ruling BJP.
However, the BJP will try not to leave any stone unturned to increase its numbers in the upper house, because it will have a direct impact on the Presidential as well as Vice-Presidential elections to be held in the coming months.