To become the world’s most populous but also the youngest country boosts Indian pride and enhances our aspiration for a brilliant future.
With a median age of 28 and an unlimited working age population available for decades to come, we can make the projection of becoming the world’s third biggest economy by 2029, come true. The country’s network of first-class national highways criss-crossing between states, has propelled transportation and improved access like never before. Today with a burgeoning middle class capable of owning a house and happy to spend its new-found wealth on air travel, buying private education, vacations and eating out, it is a different India from the one that I or my children grew up in. Today there is nothing one cannot get done online and the days of queueing up for basics like electricity, water, gas, or telephone connections are just bad dreams. Whatever be the statistics, one sees more SUVs and Sedans than hatchbacks on most urban roads. As a proportion of an average middle-class families’ earnings (particularly if they are on the double income,) shelling out a few hundred rupees for extra services and add-ons seems worthwhile. But this picture is confined to an educated and affluent middle class - even for an aspirant working-class - but it certainly does not represent what is happening to a huge slice of the Indian population living in small towns and villages.
Less than 50% of adult Indian men and women are in the workforce. The average level of schooling is poor, so closing options for higher or professional education which alone can lead to salaried jobs. Although India has achieved a fertility rate of two children per woman, without resorting to harsh measures (except during the National emergency of 1975-1977,) the population momentum propelled by a huge base will continue for many years to come. In the most populous states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar fertility rates are still 2.3 and 2.9 woman whereas in much of India those rates have plummeted to far less than even 2 per woman! Maharashtra is at 1.7 and Punjab at 1.6! Our assumptions about population trajectories are however based on the latest NFHS-5 data which although it is trusted and very large, remains just a survey. The last Census of 2011 was even then reported to be short by over 27 million headcounts. The 2021 census was postponed because of the pandemic. The possibility of it being undertaken before the 2024 elections appears remote. For proper manpower forecasting and welfare planning it is imperative to hold the census. We do not know for instance how many young people of marriageable age will be joining the workforce or bearing children.
Status of women
The labor force participation is one of the most important indicators to decide the productivity and competitiveness of our population. According to the Periodic Table of Survey (PLFS) published by the National Sample survey office in 2023 only 25.6% of women aged 15 and above were occupied in wage earning occupations. That leaves a huge chunk of women confined to the home which should be unacceptable when fertility has declined, and daily household and caring needs have reduced. Millions of women should not be squandering their latent productivity and ways must be found to change this imbalance. Unless women’s literacy, education and employment improve, their status in society will remain restrained by discriminatory barriers. In such a scenario India cannot reap the demographic dividend – so near and yet so far !
But to expect women to join the labour force without first ending the inherent prejudice and unfairness they suffer, evinced by poor nutrition, child marriages, early child- bearing and low self-esteem is impossible. Until those barriers are removed, women would always be deterred by the handicaps of unfinished schooling, poor nutrition, and the risk of unwanted pregnancies. Improving labour force participation requires mandatory policies and laws mainly on maternity leave, child- care and women’s safety during daily commutes to the workplace.
Migration
With such a large population to take care of greater thought would also have to be given to the way the country is developing- the southern states have a disproportionate share of the elderly even as some coastal states have the bulk of industrial activity. Migration between and across states requires advance planning instead of allowing haphazard slums and unauthorised colonies to spring up at will – often causing heavy pollution of major rivers and fragile ecosystems. When we talk of demographic dividend, it will largely come from the states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh. The educational systems there must be able to cope so that those children become skilled and employable. Where they go and work should be overseen not left to family networks.
Even as India rejoices in its growth and development which is so evident in the lifestyles of middle-class Indians, one must also be alive to the challenges that the big picture presents. More than 65% of India still lives in villages. Unless young people finishing school have prospects to look forward to, we cannot presuppose that progress would be automatic. Many things crave urgent attention for the dividend to be bountiful. At least five policy bulwarks are essential and non-negotiable. First, every woman must be given protection and security to be married only after she becomes an adult. Second, she must be equipped to handle childbirths and spacing independently through mandatory counselling before marriage and annual reorientation of managing maternal and child health provided in classes run by the panchayats and budgeted for. Third, a headcount of adolescent girls should be maintained by village to act against illegal early marriages and to enable girls to acquire minimum education. Fourth, manpower planning should become the cornerstone of human development policies at the national and state levels. Fifth, enabling laws on night work by women, their safe transportation to-and-fro factories and service centres should be changed on priority.
This wish list sounds utopian in the present climate. But it is basic if India’s population is truly to be the envy of the world!
(The author is the former Executive Director, National Population Stabilisation Fund and former Secretary, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. )
