On September 2, the Centre notified an eight-member high-level committee to examine and make recommendations for the BJP-led government's new project -- One Nation, One Election (ONOE).
The abrupt announcement and the hasty formation of an expert panel headed by former President Ram Nath Kovind to evaluate its scope has taken the country by surprise. Onmanorama takes a look at the new electoral scheme and its plausibility.
What is the One Nation, One Election policy?
The One Nation, One Election policy envisages holding simultaneous elections to all three tiers of democracy -- Lok Sabha (543 MPs), Legislative assemblies (4,123 MLAs) and the Panchayats/ Municipalities (31.8 lakh members) -- as opposed to the current practice of holding them separately as and when their respective terms expire. The idea was first mooted by the Election Commission of India in its 1983 report. Former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee was a staunch supporter of the scheme.
Interestingly, elections to the Lok Sabha and legislative assemblies were mostly held simultaneously from 1951-52 to 1967. The cycle was disrupted after the first decade of Independence due to multiple reasons like dissolution of assembly, hung governments etc.
“In 1959, the State Government was dissolved in Kerala. In 1965 there was a hung assembly and the legislature was dissolved without even convening. Even the Lok Sabha has not served the entire five-year period tenure multiple times. There is no reason why this will not recur in future,” said Sebastian Paul, former Ernakulam MP and legal expert.
The dilemma of no-confidence and hung govts
“My major apprehension revolves around the no-confidence motion. If the Parliament term is fixed to five or six years what is the scope of a no-confidence motion in the House? If a no-confidence motion succeeds, an election will have to be held thereby defeating the purpose of simultaneous polls. The alternative is to get rid of the provision,” he said outlining a Catch-22 situation.
In fact, in 2018, the Law Commission of India chaired by Justice B S Chauhan suggested replacing the ‘no-confidence motion’ with a ‘constructive vote of no-confidence’ in a draft report on simultaneous elections.
In a constructive vote of no confidence, the government may only be removed if there is confidence in an alternate government. It further suggested the option of limiting the number of such motions during the term of the House/ Assembly.
The grand plan of simultaneous elections will also be hit if there is a hung House or Assembly. According to the Commission, if a pre- or post-poll alliance fails to form the government or an all-party consensus is reached, a mid-term election may be held. However, the new government should serve only for the remainder of the term and not the entire five years.
The possibility of defection and shifting loyalties will prove to be yet another challenge.
Toll on federalism?
According to experts, simultaneous elections will undoubtedly take a toll on the federal structure envisioned in the Constitution as it affects the autonomy and independence of state governments.
The ONOE scheme leaves a question mark on the state assemblies and their terms. When the next Lok Sabha polls are held in 2024, Kerala and Tamil Nadu assemblies will have two more years for their tenures to end. The execution of synchronised elections will require the dissolution of some assemblies and the extension of others.
“The BJP is indirectly or indiscreetly moving from the Parliamentary system to the Presidential system. But this is not suitable for India,” Sebastian Paul said.
The benefits of simultaneous elections
The 2018 Law Commission draft highlights four important benefits of the suggested electoral scheme - (i) save public money, (ii) reduce the burden on the administrative setup and security forces, (iii) ensure timely implementation of government policies, and (iv) ensure that the administrative machinery is engaged in development activities rather than electioneering.
The expenditure argument has also been raised by a parliamentary standing committee and the government notification issued last week.
“It (multiple polls) leads to the diversion of security forces and other electoral officers engaged in such elections from their primary duties for significantly prolonged periods. Frequent polls disrupt developmental work on account of prolonged application of Model Code of Conduct,” the notification said.
Financial gains or losses?
However, the financial angle is primarily flawed. According to budget documents, Rs 9,000 crore was spent by the government for conducting the 2019 Lok Sabha elections as against Rs 3,426 crore for the 2014 election. Out of this Rs 5,400 crore was spent on EVMs alone. Sixteen lakh new EVMs and VVPATs were procured in 2019 for conducting the Lok Sabha elections. Simultaneous elections would easily double the demand for these machines.
Interestingly, the Election Commission itself pegged the additional cost of procuring EVMs and VVPAT machines for synchronised polls at Rs 9,300 crore. The department-related standing committee on law and personnel, which came out with a report on "Feasibility of holding simultaneous elections to the Lok Sabha and State Legislative Assemblies" in December 2015 had cited the suggestions made by the EC on the issue.
Besides, EVMs need to be replaced every 15 years, which would again entail expenditure. “Storage of EVMs also increases warehousing costs,” the standing committee said adding that the EC pointed out several difficulties which might be encountered in conducting simultaneous elections.
There are also several logistical issues at hand. In 2014, when Odisha and some other states went to polls, the elections were held in 10 phases. The number of paramilitary force personnel and election officials to be deployed will also increase substantially in case of synchronous polls.
Role of new eight-member panel
The eight-member high-level committee to examine and make recommendations for the proposal will have Home Minister Amit Shah, former leader of the opposition in Rajya Sabha Ghulam Nabi Azad, former finance commission chairman N K Singh, former Lok Sabha Secretary Gen. Subhash C Kashyap, senior advocate Harish Salve and former Chief Vigilance Commissioner Sanjay Kothari as members.
Law Minister Arjun Ram Meghwal will attend the meetings of the committee as a special invitee, while Law Secretary Niten Chandra will be the secretary to the panel. Though Opposition leader Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury was added to the panel, the Congress leader declined to be a part of it calling it a total 'eyewash'.
“The committee is a high-level panel headed by the former President. But they have pre-set answers and a pre-fabricated structure. Their only task is to recommend these already decided factors. That is not the way to execute a policy with such far-reaching changes in our electoral structure,” said Sebastian Paul.
What is the committee's task?
According to the notification issued by the Centre, the committee will examine and recommend specific amendments required for holding simultaneous elections.
It has also been tasked to suggest a framework for synchronisation of elections and "specifically suggest the phases and timeframe within which simultaneous elections may be held if they cannot be held in one go..." The committee will also analyse and recommend possible solutions to scenarios such as a hung House, adoption of the no-confidence motion, defection or any other event in case of simultaneous elections.
The issue of logistics is also on the agenda as the massive exercise would require several additional EVMs and paper-trail machines, polling and security personnel. The government notification said the panel will commence functioning immediately and make recommendations "at the earliest", but did not specify a timeframe to submit the report.
Amendments galore
The draft report on Law Commission clearly states that simultaneous elections may be conducted to Lok Sabha and state Legislative Assemblies only after appropriate amendments to the Constitution, the Representation of the People Act 1951, and the Rules of Procedure of Lok Sabha and state Assemblies.
“The government cannot evade the process of constitutional amendment. They may be successful when it comes to statutory amendment due to the numbers in the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha,” said Sebastian Paul.
According to legal experts, a massive uphaul of the Indian Constitution and an amendment of a minimum of 5 Articles will be needed to execute the new electoral scheme.
1. Article 83 (2): The Lok Sabha's term should not exceed five years but it may be dissolved sooner.
2. Article 85 (2) (B): A dissolution ends the very life of the existing House and a new House is constituted after general elections.
3. Article 172 (1): A state assembly, unless sooner dissolved, shall continue for five years
4. Article 174 (2) (B): The Governor has the power to dissolve the assembly on the aid and advice of the cabinet. The Governor can apply his mind when the advice comes from a Chief Minister whose majority is in doubt.
5. Article 356 - Imposition of President's Rule in states.
At least 50 per cent of the states should ratify the Constitutional amendments for it to be passed.
While some of the arguments outlined by the government in support of simultaneous polls such as the policy paralysis due to the implementation of the Model Code of Conduct hold water, the policy is largely not pragmatic. Implementing it without enough deliberations is a recipe for disaster which could destroy the very fabric of the Indian democracy.
