WB exit polls show split verdict, TMC & BJP both projected to lead, DMK+ in TN

As the final phase of polling concluded in West Bengal on Wednesday, the 2026 Assembly election cycle has come to an end, shifting focus to exit polls for West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Puducherry, released after 6.30 pm.

West Bengal
In West Bengal, exit poll projections present a sharply divided picture. People’s Pulse forecasts a comfortable victory for the TMC, projecting 177–187 seats, well above the majority mark of 148 in the 294-member Assembly. The BJP is placed a distant second with 95–110 seats, while the Left is nearly wiped out with 0–1 seats and the Congress limited to 1–3.

However, two other agencies, Matrize and PMARQ, suggest a contrasting outcome, giving the BJP a narrow edge. Matrize projects the BJP at 146–161 seats against the TMC’s 125–140, while PMARQ estimates an even stronger showing for the BJP with 150–175 seats, compared to the TMC’s 118–138.

Chanakya Strategies projects the BJP winning 150–160 seats in West Bengal’s 294-member Assembly, ahead of the TMC+ alliance at 130–140, with the majority mark set at 148. With this, it becomes the third agency after Matrize and PMARQ to give the BJP an edge, while only People’s Pulse continues to favour Mamata Banerjee’s party.

Despite the divergence, all four agencies agree that the contest in West Bengal is largely bipolar between the TMC and BJP, with the Left and Congress playing a minimal role. The wide variation in projections makes West Bengal one of the most unpredictable states in this election cycle.

Assam
According to India Today’s exit poll results, the NDA holds a clear edge in Assam across both rural and urban regions. Estimates show the alliance securing 47 per cent of the vote share in rural areas and 52 per cent in urban pockets. The Congress+ alliance trails with 39 per cent in rural and 34 per cent in urban segments, pointing to NDA’s dominance across voter bases.

The BJP is projected to win 88–100 seats, while the Congress is estimated at 24–36 seats, according to Axis My India exit polls.

Tamil Nadu
People's Insight offers the most optimistic projection for Vijay’s TVK+, placing the alliance at 30–40 seats, the highest estimate among all agencies. DMK+ is projected at 120–140 seats, while ADMK+ is seen at 60–70. If TVK+ reaches the upper end of this range, it would mark a significant debut for the newcomer alliance.

P-Marq projects DMK led victory at 125–145 seats, in line with People’s Pulse estimates, while ADMK+ is placed at 65–85 and TVK+ at 16–26. The NDA is estimated at 65–85 seats, TVK at 16–26, and others at 1–6 seats.

According to People’s Pulse, DMK+ is set to secure 125–145 seats in the 234-member Assembly, comfortably crossing the majority mark of 118. ADMK+ is projected at 65–80 seats, TVK+ at 18–24, and Others at 2–6, reinforcing the view that DMK+ retains a strong hold on power while ADMK+ lags behind.

Matrize projects a win for the DMK-led alliance with 122–132 seats, while the NDA is estimated at 87–100 seats. Vijay’s TVK is likely to secure 10–12 seats, and others 0–6.

Puducherry
The NRC is projected to win 16–19 seats, while the Congress is estimated at 10–12 seats. TVK is unlikely to open its account, and others may secure 1–2 seats, according to the People's Pulse exit poll.

Counting of votes will take place on May 4.