Tamil Nadu exit polls: DMK leads with 92–145 seats, ADMK trails close

Exit poll projections for the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections indicate a DMK victory, with most agencies suggesting it may remain ahead. However, TVK’s emergence and varying estimates for ADMK indicate a closely contested three-way race with no clear consensus. According to NDTV, Axis My India projects DMK at 92–110 seats, ADMK at 22–23, TVK at 98–120 and others at 0.

JVC, however, places ADMK ahead with 128–147 seats, followed by DMK at 75–95, TVK at 8–15 and others at 0. Kamakhya Analytics estimates DMK at 78–95, ADMK at 68–84 and TVK at 67–81, with no seats for others.

Matrize projects DMK at 122–132, ADMK at 87–100, TVK at 10–12 and others at 0–6. P-Marq places DMK at 125–145, ADMK at 65–85, TVK at 16–26 and others at 1–6. People’s Insight estimates DMK at 120–140, ADMK at 60–70, TVK at 30–40 and others at 0–4, while People’s Pulse projects DMK at 125–145, ADMK at 65–80, TVK at 18–24 and others at 2–6. Praja Poll projects DMK at 148–168, ADMK at 61–81, TVK at 1–9 and no seats for others.

The poll of exit polls places DMK at 120, ADMK at 77, TVK at 36 and others at 1. While most major pollsters such as Praja Poll, P-Marq and Matrize project a return to power for the DMK alliance, several models also indicate the rise of Vijay’s TVK as a significant third force, with potential to influence the overall outcome.

The sharply differing projections from JVC and Axis My India highlight a highly competitive three-cornered contest, pointing to an unusually fluid electoral landscape where the final seat tally remains difficult to predict.

In 2021, the Tamil Nadu Assembly election resulted in a significant victory for the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led Secular Progressive Alliance, which ended the ten-year rule of the AIADMK by winning 159 out of 234 seats. The DMK itself secured an absolute majority with 133 seats, allowing M K Stalin to be sworn in as Chief Minister for the first time.

On the other side, the AIADMK-led National Democratic Alliance managed to win 75 seats, with the AIADMK securing 66 of those. Despite the wide gap in seat count, the contest was relatively close in terms of popular support, with a roughly five-percentage-point difference in vote share between the two major fronts.