West Bengal exit polls show split verdict, TMC and BJP both projected to lead

The exit poll projections for the 2026 Assembly elections in West Bengal indicate a sharply polarised and closely fought contest. The majority mark in the 294-member Assembly is 148. According to India Today–Axis My India, BJP (NDA) is projected at 142–171 seats, while TMC (AITC+) is estimated at 177–187, with others (Left-INC+) at 5–10.

The projection suggests a high-intensity battle, with both sides having a path to the majority, though TMC’s upper range is higher than that of other agencies.

Praja Poll gives BJP a significant lead, projecting 178–210 seats, compared to TMC at 85–110 and others at 5–8. Poll Diary estimates BJP at 142–171, TMC at 99–127 and others at 5–9. Chanakya Strategies projects BJP at 150–160, TMC at 130–140 and others at 6–10. Matrize places BJP at 146–161, TMC at 125–140 and others at 6–10.

Overall, most agencies indicate that BJP could cross the majority mark, potentially forming a government in the state for the first time, while some projections, particularly from Axis My India, suggest that the Trinamool Congress remains competitive and could retain power. Across all polls, the Left-Congress alliance is projected to remain in single digits, pointing to a largely bipolar contest between BJP and TMC.

Voter turnout remained high in the final phase, with districts such as Purba Bardhaman recording 92.46 per cent, Hooghly 90.34 per cent and Nadia 90.28 per cent. The overall turnout is estimated to be close to 90 per cent. However, experts caution that exit polls in West Bengal have historically struggled to fully capture voting patterns. The final outcome will be determined when votes are counted on May 4, 2026, with results expected to be declared by late evening the same day.