India to see below average monsoon rains in 2026, says IMD in updated forecast

The country is likely to see below-average monsoon rains for the first time in three years in 2026, according to the India Meteorological Department.

In its updated Long Range Forecast for the Southwest Monsoon Seasonal Rainfall during June–September, 2026 and Monthly Rainfall and Temperature Outlook for June 2026, the IMD said quantitatively, the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole was likely to be 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), indicating that below normal rainfall was most likely over the country as a whole during the monsoon season (June to September) 2026.

The southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September, 2026) rainfall was most likely to be normal over Northeast India, and below normal over Central & South Peninsular India and Northwest India. The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ) consisting of most of the rainfed agriculture areas in the country was also most likely to be below normal, the statement said.

During June to September 2026, below-normal seasonal rainfall was most likely over most parts of the country, except some areas over Northwest and northeast India, eastern parts of south peninsula and adjoining areas of east-central India and isolated pockets of East India, where normal to above normal rainfall was likely. The average rainfall for the country as a whole during June 2026 was also most likely to be below normal.

During June, below normal monthly rainfall was very likely over most parts of the country, except over some parts of NorthwestIndia, Northeast India and south Peninsula and isolated pockets of central India where normal to above normal rainfall was likely. As for temperatures in June, above normal monthly maximum temperatures were likely over most parts of the country, except some parts of Central, Northwest and East India, where normal to below normal maximum temperatures were very likely. Above-normal monthly minimum temperatures were likely across most parts of the country, except some parts of Northwest, Central and adjoining south Peninsular India where, where the minimum temperatures were likely to be normal to below-normal.

​At the same time, during June, above normal heat wave days were expected over many parts of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh and isolated regions of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. Below normal heatwave days were also likely over Rajasthan and Jharkhand.

The latest climate model forecasts indicate that the El Nino conditions were likely to develop during the southwest monsoon season, the IMD added.