Rumours of COVID -19 community spread have been doing the rounds in Kerala for quite some time, especially after a number of infections began to increase following the arrival of Keralites from abroad and other states.
But the state government has denied this. Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan himself stated that no community spread has happened in Kerala so far.
In this context, Onmanorama talks to Kerala's renowned health expert Dr K P Aravindan about the community spread of COVID-19 and the precautions to be taken after the lockdown.
Dr Aravindan retired as the head of pathology department from the Government Medical College Kozhikode. He was the former president of Kerala's people science movement, Kerala Sasthra Sahitya Parishad.
This is the edited excerpts from Onmanorama podcast 'Let's Talk'. Listen to the full podcast here.
COVID-19's community spread seems to be the most-discussed topic in Kerala these days. Many reports suggest that community spread has already happened in Kerala. But the government denied this many times. Should we be so afraid of the community spread?
With thousands of people coming into the state from Covid-affected areas from abroad and with in the country, we expected some virus leakage into the community. We have to boost surveillance measures to find whether the spill is significant enough to change our current policies, such as patient management at the hospitals and precautions for health workers etc., and thus the early stages of community transmission. One step is to increase testing of high risk people, such as health workers, police personnel, community volunteers who are likely to come in contact with potentially Covid positive persons and check whether the number of positive cases is going up. Another measure is to test people with flu-like symptoms. This means that we should be on guard all the time.
What's the status of community spread in Kerala. Has it already happened or will it happen soon?
Instead of saying yes or no, I would rather say that, as of now, the threat of community spread is not at a worrying level that will force us to change our policies.
We have to assess two types of data for assessing the scenario. The first type is the data of primary and contact cases under quarantine. If the percentage of contact cases goes up above 50%, then we should understand that it is a harbinger of community spread.
We have to look at the data from high risk groups too. The number of positive cases from high risk group is relatively low at the moment. But we should closely monitor it day by day.
Kerala is expected to relax some more lockdown restrictions after June 8. What are the precautions people should take after the lockdown?
Easing of lockdown does not mean easing of social distancing and break the chain measures, which are far more important now than before. We must put on masks while speaking to others. The function of the mask is not to protect you from coronavirus, but to protect others from getting infection from you. People should avoid using closed and poorly ventilated spaces and try climbing stairs than using lifts. We should also reverse quarantine elderly and sick people. This means that people with other illnesses, such as heart diseases, cancer, lung disease, diabetes, should be kept away from potentially infected people.
How rigorously we should follow these precautions?
Government cannot enforce these precautions forcefully. These messages should reach each and every individual. It is essential to fight the collective danger we are in. Even a small slip can put us in trouble. And the disease can get into an exponential phase.
Kerala is passing through a crucial phase now. We had almost contained the disease. But with the arrival of Keralites from abroad and other states from May 7, the number of cases began to rise. How should we view this situation?
Rising numbers may cause a lot of worry, but merely looking at the numbers can be deceptive. We should look at the proportion of primary cases and how many people are getting infected from them. We should keep this at a low level. This depends on the effectiveness of our quarantine measures.
Many places have reported re-emergence of COVID after it was contained, including the Chinese city of Wuhan. Should Kerala be prepared for another virus outbreak after the current phase?
It is a possibility. We can get rid of infections only when the virus has no real place to go. That can happen only through herd immunity. We cannot simply let everyone get infected as it will cause morbidity. That is why we are trying to contain the disease. The virus may come back any time until we get a vaccine.
