Pre-poll survey: LDF may win Kerala, Mamata to retain West Bengal, TN for UPA


The CPI (M)-led Left Democratic Front is going to give a tough fight to the Congress-United Democratic Front coalition and the Bharatiya Janata Party in the upcoming assembly elections in Kerala, as it is likely to win 87 seats out of 140 and have a vote share of over 40 per cent, the IANS-CVoter survey revealed on Saturday.

On Friday, the Election Commission of India announced the poll schedule for the Kerala Assembly election. The state will vote in a single-phase election for all 140 seats of the Kerala Assembly. It is likely to be a hotly contested political battle. In 2016, the LDF had assumed charge.

According to the survey of more than 8,796 participants taken in six weeks, the LDF may have a vote share of 40.1 per cent as against 41.9 in the 2016 elections. It may score 87 seats, down by four.

The Congress-led United Democratic Front will gather a vote share of 32.6 per cent, in comparison to 2016, when it logged 38.8 per cent. The seats will increase from 47 to 51.

Notably, Bharatiya Janata Party's vote share will plummet from 14.9 per cent in 2016 to 12.7 per cent in the upcoming elections. The seats will, however, remain constant at one. Kerala, for long, has remained an unconquerable fortress for the BJP.

In the outgoing Assembly, the CPI-M-led Left Democratic Front had 91 seats, while the Congress-led United Democratic Front had 47, and the BJP and P.C. George, whose party is not allied with any of the three fronts, had one each.

The LDF comprises 14 parties, including the Kerala Congress-Mani and the erstwhile Janata Dal-U (now the Loktantrik Janata Dal), which crossed over from the UDF last year.

In the UDF, there are just five parties at present, and while the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance also has five, the others, apart from the BJP and the Bharat Dharma Jana Sena, have just a nominal presence.

TMC likely to get 156 seats in Bengal, BJP 100 out of 294 seats

It is a straight war between Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the BJP in West Bengal, which voted left parties to power, for many decades since independence. Though, it seems the TMC has a clear edge in this political fight, BJP is not far behind and likely to make a huge dent in the political equation of the state.

According to an IANS CVoter survey, the TMC is likely to emerge as a clear winner with 156 seats, which is barely over the half-way mark, and a decrease in 55 seats from its 2016 tally in the 294 seat Assembly. The survey projects, the BJP will notch up its tally from single-digit 3 seats in the 2016 election to a triple-digit 100 in the 2021 election. The Left Front-Congress combine is projected to be at the third spot with just 35 seats.

Interestingly, the survey projects there isn't a gulf of difference in votes percentage of the TMC and BJP, where the former is likely to get 42.8 per cent and the latter not far behind with 38 per cent. The swing vote percentage favours the BJP, which has jumped from 10.2 per cent in 2016 polls to 38 per cent in 2021 polls, on the contrary, the TMC may get 2.1 per cent fewer votes per cent. The Left Front-Congress combine is projected to get 12.9 per cent votes, a major of 25 per cent from its 2016 tally, and it seems the beneficiary is the BJP.

According to the projected range of seats, the TMC is projected to get seats in the range 148-164 seats, followed by the BJP with 92-108 seats and the Left Front-Congress may get 31-39 seats and the remaining 1-5 seats may go to the independent candidates.

The survey also observed a significant gap between the numbers of actual voting intention and the perception of winnability in West Bengal. While the BJP is leading the war of perception and winnability, it is the TMC that is still leading the likely voters equation. The perception gap for the BJP is 4.6 and for the TMC it is -8.8. According to the survey, 42.6 per cent perceive the BJP is likely to win the West Bengal election, while 34 per cent perceive, the TMC will win.

UPA may form govt in Tamil Nadu with 150+ seats win

New Delhi, Feb 27 (IANS) The United Progressive Alliance (UPA) is likely to sweep the Tamil Nadu assembly with a projected win on 158 seats, which is a growth of 60 seats over what it won in the 2016 assembly elections, whereas the vote share is also supposed to rise by 2 per cent, as per the IANS C-Voter Poll Survey.

The poll results also said that the party may win anywhere between 154 to 162 seats in the assembly elections that are scheduled to be held on April 6.

Meanwhile, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) may be reduced to 62 seats, a massive decline from the 2016 elections. The party had won 136 seats then.

Meanwhile, the combine may win anywhere between 58 to 66 seats in the 2021 elections whose result will be out on May 2. Assembly elections are scheduled to be held in the state on April 6.

The vote share of the UPA is likely to improve to 41.4 per cent from 39.4 per cent it achieved in 2016. Meanwhile, NDA may see a reduction of 15.1 per cent in the vote share from the 2016 election. In the previous assembly election, the alliance had got 43.7 per cent of the total votes. However, it is supposed to achieve only 28.6 per cent in 2021.

The poll was conducted for more than 16,000 people at 234 assembly seats.

(With inputs from IANS)

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